At least two and possibly three organizations, including the Colorado Democratic Party, are considering challenging the Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission drawn congressional map while the state Supreme Court is considering the plan sent to them on September 28th. The state Supreme Court has a December 15th deadline to approve the map.
The Colorado Latino Leadership, Advocacy and Research Organization and the Campaign Legal Center, the latter being an unofficial national Democratic Party redistricting arm, are the two groups saying they are beginning challenges relating to how Hispanics are grouped on this particular map. The Colorado Democrats are reportedly considering challenging in relation to the state’s competitiveness criteria. The Iowa state Senate panel considering the committee staff formulaic redistricting maps for the congressional, state Senate, and state House district boundaries has rejected the first draw, returning all three maps to the committee with an order that they begin anew. Under Iowa legislative rules, the legislature must consider all three maps as a package, meaning an objection to one map means all three must be re-drawn. Though the staff committee has leverage in drawing the maps, the legislature retains the ultimate authority to reject them. The committee can make three attempts at obtaining approval. If failing on the third time, the process reverts to total state legislative control.
The state House of Representatives, which is the key body in moving forward on the Texas redistricting maps, has taken a step forward. Yesterday, the Redistricting Committee approved the state House plan, thereby qualifying the map for a floor vote. The legislative leaders said they will not move any map until they pass the state House plan. Currently, the legislature is in special session, and it is a virtual certainty that Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will be forced to call another 30-day session to complete the process.
Republicans appear to be banking on venture capitalist Jesse Sullivan, who is ready to spend large amounts from the his personal fortune, to give them the type of candidate needed to compete with Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D). A new Ogden & Fry survey (10/3-4; 404 IL likely Republican primary voters; live interview) finds Mr. Sullivan trailing state Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Louisville) by a large 33-6% deficit, however. This suggests Mr. Sullivan will not only have to spend heavily in the general election, but also for the June 28th Republican primary in order to reverse his standing in the race.
Emerson College is returning new polling data (10/1-3; 620 VA likely voters; live interview and online panel with weighted responses) that finds Democratic former Governor Terry McAuliffe and Republican former hedge fund CEO Glenn Youngkin are within one point of each other on the latest ballot test response, 49-48%. This is a change from other polling that consistently found Mr. McAuliffe leading by slightly larger margins.
The result could be in relation to the Youngkin offensive about Mr. McAuliffe saying in a debate that “parents shouldn’t be telling schools what to teach.” In a potentially indicative response, 55% of the sample cell individuals believe McAuliffe will win the race despite the ballot test being tied. Now that Colorado redistricting is complete and awaits only state Supreme Court legal confirmation, two candidates have already announced their intentions to run in the state’s new 8th District, which lies north of Denver. State Representative and pediatrician Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) and Adams County Commissioner Chaz Tedesco (D) have both declared their congressional candidacies. The 8th is a politically marginal district, so we can expect a very active general election campaign in this new domain.
Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) signed the legislature’s redistricting maps into law making Indiana the fourth state to complete the redistricting process. The congressional map will likely return seven Republicans and two Democrats to the House while the state Senate and House will assuredly remain in GOP hands. Indiana joins Oregon, Colorado, and Nebraska as the first places to complete the re-mapping process.
Physician Sherry O’Donnell becomes the sixth Republican challenger to veteran Michigan Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) with her recent candidacy announcement. Mr. Upton was one of the ten Republicans to vote for then-President Trump’s second impeachment, prompting the former national chief executive to endorse state Rep. Steve Carra (R-Kalamazoo). Ironically, the large number of primary opponents will actually make it easier for Rep. Upton to win re-nomination in a plurality election format since the anti-incumbent vote will be split among multiple candidates.
Former national security analyst Jeff Cozzens (R) announced his congressional candidacy in hopes of challenging five-term Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton/Concord). With Republicans, who control the New Hampshire redistricting process, likely to make the eastern 1st District more Republican, which by default will give Rep. Kuster a stronger Democratic seat, a challenger’s chances against the state’s western district incumbent will dim rather severely.
2020 state House nominee Rebecca Cingolani (D) announced her congressional candidacy earlier in the week making her the first Democrat to challenge freshman South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston). Since former Rep. Joe Cunningham (D), who Ms. Mace defeated in 2020, eschewed another run for Congress and is instead challenging Gov. Henry McMaster (R) Democrats have not been able to recruit a top tier 1st District candidate. It is believed the Republican legislature will make the 1st more Republican in redistricting, thus making it difficult for any Democrat to win the seat. More action will likely occur here once the redistricting maps become public.
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