​Another of the New York outstanding seats has finally been decided.  Despite challenger George Santos (R) leading in the counting until the very end when fortunes flipped, Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) has scored his second re-election victory in his south-central Long Island congressional seat.  Though counting is not yet complete, Mr. Santos conceded the race after falling behind by more than 20,000 votes.  Mr. Suozzi was first elected in 2016 after former Rep. Steve Israel (D-Huntington) decided to retire.  

​The Republicans have now gained a net of 9 seats in the House with five races remaining uncalled.  In the five outstanding contests, Republicans lead in four. 
 
One of them, in Iowa, has been certified as a 47-vote win for state Sen. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Ottumwa), but Democratic nominee Rita Hart has requested a recount in all 24 of the 2nd District’s counties, which began yesterday.  Republicans, including Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA), hold tenuous leads in the two remaining California races.  Former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY) looks poised to re-claim New York’s 22nd District, and Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ) continues to lead as final counting winds down in his New Jersey re-election race.
 
Another race will be decided in a Louisiana December 5th runoff election.  There, former congressional aide Luke Letlow and state Rep. Lance Harris (R-Alexandria) will advance to a secondary vote.  Since both are Republicans, the GOP is assured of holding the open seat regardless of the outcome.

​The New York US House contests are either called or conceded with the exception of the state’s 22nd District in the Upstate.  There, former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) leads freshman Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-Utica) by 25,885 votes with 81-83% of the vote recorded depending upon what source is reporting.  That being said, it is likely that Mr. Brindisi will have to obtain more at least two-thirds of the remaining votes in order to overcome the challenger’s lead.
 
Reps. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley), Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove), Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring), Antonio Delgado (D-Rhinebeck), and John Katko (R-Syracuse) have now all been re-elected.  Republican Anthony Garbarino has held retiring GOP Rep. Peter King’s seat on Long Island.  So far, Republicans have gained one seat in the New York delegation as state Assemblywoman Michelle Malliotakis defeated freshman Rep. Max Rose (D-Staten Island).

​While counting of a substantial number of absentee ballots continues, Rep. Max Rose (D-Staten Island) has conceded defeat to state Assemblywoman Nicole Milliotakis (R).  Her 37,000 vote lead will be enough to withstand Rep. Rose gaining among the absentee ballots, thus the concession announcement.  The Staten Island seat has traditionally been the only one of New York City’s 13 CDs that votes Republican.  Mr. Rose won the seat in 2018 defeating then-Rep. Dan Donovan (R), but it returns to its more traditional voting pattern in this election.

​With 77% of the votes recorded in New York’s 1st Congressional District, CNN has projected that Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) has defeated his Democratic challenger Nancy Goroff (D) to secure a fourth term.  With an estimated 66,000+ votes remaining, Rep. Zeldin’s 65,120 vote lead is obviously secure.

​The seemingly most ignored outstanding race with an incumbent trailing comes in Long Island’s 3rd Congressional District.  There, business development executive George Santos (R), in a race that attracted no outside attention during the campaign, leads two-term Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) by 4,171 votes.  Estimates suggest that as many as 76,000 mail ballots are being counted and recorded.  If Mr. Suozzi is to reverse the trend, he would have to exceed 53% of the outstanding votes.  Of those counted and posted, the Congressman has received 49% of the vote.

Since seven House races were called yesterday, we now see 16 congressional contests called, eight of which are in New York and three in California. 
 
Below is the list of the outstanding races and their current status:
 
AK-AL:  Rep. Don Young (R)
Status:  59.2%; Reporting 69%
R+ 43,761 votes

CA-21:  David Valadao (R)
Status:  51.4% ; Reporting 71%
R+ 4,041 votes

CA-25:  Rep. Mike Garcia (R)
Status:  50.0%; Reporting 86%
R+ 159 votes

CA-39:  Young Kim (R)
Status:  50.6%; Reporting 97%
R+ 4,168 votes

IA-2:  Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Status:  50.0%; Reporting 100%
R+ 40 votes

IL-14:  Rep. Lauren Underwood (D)
Status:  50.4%; Reporting 100%
D+ 3,524 votes

LA-5:  Luke Letlow (R)
Status:  33.1%; Reporting 100%
Runoff - Dec 5

NY-1:  Rep. Lee Zeldin (R)
Status:  61.3%; Reporting 100%
R+ 65,120 votes

NY-2:  Andrew Garbarino (R)
Status:  57.8%; Reporting 100%
R+ 44,898 votes

NY-3:  George Santos (R)
Status:  50.5%; Reporting 100%
R+ 4,171 votes

NY-11:  Nicole Malliotakis (R)
Status:  57.9%; Reporting 95%
R+ 37,158 votes

NY-18:  Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D)
Status:  51.0%; Reporting 100%
D+ 7,896 votes

NY-19:  Rep. Antonio Delgado (D)
Status:  50.4%; Reporting 100%
D+ 7,893 votes

NY-22:  Claudia Tenney (R)
Status:  54.5%; Reporting 100%
R+ 28,394 votes

NY-24:  Rep. John Katko (R)
Status:  58.5%; Reporting 100%
R+ 55,102 votes

UT-4:  Burgess Owens (R)
Status:  47.6%; Reporting 95%
R+ 1,780 votes

13 of 16 R Leads 

​Currently, we see 21 US House races uncalled, eight of which are in New York and six in California.  The New York absentee ballots counting process will begin today.  The ballot reception period in California lasts all the way until November 20th.  Therefore, we probably won’t see final CA results until Thanksgiving. 
 
At this point, Republicans have gained a net five seats in the House.  Of the 21 outstanding races they lead in 15, but many will flip back toward the Democrat when all votes are counted.  At this point, an overall GOP gain in the House between seven and nine seats appears reasonable.  Even the smaller number would put the Republicans within ten seats of re-claiming the majority in 2022. 

Two Senate races were called yesterday, one for Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) who scored a 51-42% victory over state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport).  Ms. Gideon conceded the race yesterday even though the count had not ended.  In Michigan, Sen. Gary Peters (D) was projected with a very close win (49.6 – 48.5%) over GOP challenger John James.
 
The two calls mean that the high number for the Republican majority is 52, with the Democratic maximum being 51.  The most likely outcome from the current trends and potentially projecting the runoff election under what may be a Biden victory at the presidential level is either a Republican majority of 51 or 52 seats.
 
In the House, 40 races remain uncalled, yet many of them are now reporting 100% of the vote being received.  Of the 40, the Republicans lead in 25 and the Democrats in 15.  This would translate in a Republican net gain in the House of most likely between five and nine seats.
 
Below is a list of the races that remain uncalled and which candidate is currently leading.
 
Senate
 
Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) - Status: 62.3%; Reporting: 50%
Georgia-A: Sen. David Perdue (R) - must reach 50%;  Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 97%
Georgia-B: Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) - Status: 32.5%; Reporting: 96%
                      Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) - Status: 26.2%; Reporting: Runoff
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) - Winner; Status: 51.1%
Michigan: Sen. Gary Peters (D) - Winner; Status: 49.6%
North Carolina: Sen. Thom Tillis (R) - Status: 48.7%; Reporting: 93%
 
House
 
AK-AL: Rep. Don Young (R) - Status: 63.3%; Reporting: 53%
AZ-1: Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D) - Status: 52.1%; Reporting: 92%
AZ-6: Hiral Tipirneni (D) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 76%
CA-4: Rep. Tom McClintock (R) - Status: 52.9%; Reporting: 87%
CA-8: Jay Obernolte (R) - Status: 53.3%; Reporting: 37%
CA-21: David Valadao (R) - Status: 51.4%; Reporting: 42%
CA-25: Christy Smith (D) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 77%
CA-39: Young Kim (R) - Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 89%
CA-48: Michelle Steel (R) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 93%
CA-50: Darrell Issa (R) - Status: 52.2%; Reporting: 51%
GA-7: Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) - Status: 51.2%; Reporting: 100%
IA-2: Marianette Miller-Meeks (R) - Status: 50.0%; Reporting: 100%
IL-14: Jim Oberweis (R) - Status: 50.1%; Reporting: 100%
IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D) - Status: 51.8%; Reporting: 100%
IN-5: Victoria Spartz (R) - Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 99%
MI-3: Peter Meijer (R) - Status: 53.1%; Reporting: 99%
MI-5: Dan Kildee (D) - Status: 54.3%; Reporting: 100%
MI-11: Haley Stevens (D) - Status: 50.0%; Reporting: 97%
MN-1: Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) - Status: 48.6%; Reporting: 100%
MN-2: Rep. Angie Craig (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 100%
NJ-2: Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R) - Status: 51.0%; Reporting: 75%
NV-3: Rep. Susie Lee (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 85%
NV-4: Rep. Steven Horsford (D) - Status: 49.7%; Reporting: 65%
NY-1: Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) - Status: 61.3%; Reporting: 99%
NY-2: Andrew Garbarino (R) - Status: 58.1%; Reporting: 99%
NY-3: George Santos (R) - Status: 50.5%; Reporting: 99%
NY-4: Rep. Kathleen Rice (D) - Status: 52.0%; Reporting: 100%
NY-11: Nicole Malliotakis (R) - Status: 57.9%; Reporting: 95%
NY-18: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) - Status: 50.8%; Reporting: 100%
NY-19: Rep. Antonio Delgado (D) - Status: 51.3%; Reporting: 98%
NY-22: Claudia Tenney (R) - Status: 54.9%; Reporting: 100%
NY-24: Rep. John Katko (R) - Status: 58.5%; Reporting: 100%
PA-7: Lisa Scheller (R) - Status: 50.7%; Reporting: 86%
PA-8: Jim Bognet (R) - Status: 50.5%; Reporting: 86%
PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R) - Status: 54.9%; Reporting: 89%
PA-17: Sean Parnell (R) - Status: 51.0%; Reporting: 94%
TX-24: Beth Van Duyne (R) - Status: 48.8%; Reporting: 99%
UT-4: Rep. Ben McAdams (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 69%
VA-7: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) - Status: 50.6%; Reporting: 100%
WA-3: Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) - Status: 54.7%; Reporting: 80%

​Change Research reports conducting a series of online polls from Oct. 29 through Nov. 2 in various congressional districts.  They are showing virtual tie scores in several toss-up districts heading into today’s voting:
 
AR-2: Rep. French Hill (R) vs. St. Sen. Joyce Elliott (D)
IN-5:  Ex-St. Rep. Christina Hale (D) vs. St. Sen. Victoria Spartz (R)
MO-2: Rep. Ann Wagner (R) vs. St. Sen. Jill Schupp (D)
NE-2: Rep. Don Bacon (R) vs. Kara Eastman (D)
NY-24: Rep. John Katko (R) vs. Dana Balter (D)
OH-1: Rep. Steve Chabot (R) vs. Kate Schroder (D)
OK-5: Rep. Kendra Horn (D) vs. St. Sen. Stephanie Bice (R)