The Blueprint Polling firm tested the Ohio Republican field for the upcoming Senate primary next week (4/21-24; 634 OH likely Republican primary voters; live interview), and yet another candidate is detected taking first place. This is the first survey that projects state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), who is a minority owner of the Cleveland Guardians baseball club, in the top position and the fourth of the five major candidates who in one poll or another has led the field.
In this study, Sen. Dolan posts 18% support, just a point ahead of author J.D. Vance, with businessman Mike Gibbons, former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, and ex-Ohio Republican Party chair Jane Timken following with 13, 12, and 7% preference. Fox News was also in the field during virtually the same time period (4/20-24; 906 OH likely Republican primary voters; live interview), but they produce a much different result. According to this poll, it is Mr. Vance with the lead at 23% with Messrs. Mandel, Gibbons, Dolan, and Ms. Timken trailing with 18-13-11 and 8%, respectively. As both the Blueprint and Fox analyses illustrate, with less than one week remaining in the campaign, realistically four of the candidates still have a chance to catch a flyer at the end and claim the nomination. Early voting continues for the May 3rd primary election. In a disappointing development for challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner, President Biden just involved himself in the impending May 17th Oregon primary by endorsing veteran Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Canby) over the more progressive contender who is an attorney and former local city manager. The two are vying to win the party primary for the newly constructed 5th District that is rated D+3, making it the most competitive seat in the Beaver State.
Still anchored around the Salem suburban area, the new 5th now stretches toward Oregon’s center point in order to annex the Bend community. Republicans will challenge for this seat in November. They must first, however, sort through a crowded five person GOP nomination battle next month. Rep. Schrader was first elected to the House in 2008 but re-elected in 2020 with only 51.9% of the vote. The new University of Georgia poll conducted for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution news site (4/10-22; 886 GA likely Republican primary voters; live interview) finds Governor Brian Kemp (R) expanding his polling lead over former US Senator David Perdue as the two move toward the May 24th GOP primary. The UGA numbers post the Governor’s advantage to 53-27% with educator Kandiss Taylor pulling a mere 4% support. Former President Trump has endorsed Mr. Perdue. Gov. Kemp has been ahead during the entire campaign, but his margin has clearly increased as we head toward the beginning of May.
The aforementioned University of Georgia/Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll (see Governor section above under Georgia) finds Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who was at the center of the election fraud controversy in the 2020 election, battling back to capture a slight lead over US Rep. Jody Hice (R-Greensboro) in his battle to win re-election as the state’s chief elections officer.
The UGA/Constitution poll finds incumbent Raffensperger clinging to a small 28-26% lead, which is an improvement for the incumbent over past polls. The data suggests that the two candidates will advance to a runoff election from the May 24th primary, and this typically spells doom for an incumbent since a majority of primary voters would have already chosen another candidate. The Utah Democratic nominating convention over the weekend voted with a 57% majority not to field a party candidate against Sen. Mike Lee (R), but instead form a coalition to back Independent candidate Evan McMullin.
The move was the first of its kind in Utah political history. The delegates clearly agreed with the argument that the party was better coalescing behind McMullin, a 2016 Independent presidential candidate and former Republican who placed a strong third in the state (21.5%) behind Republican Donald Trump (45.5%) and Democrat Hillary Clinton (27.5%) than nominating their own Democratic contender. They understood that supporting Democrat Kael Watson and producing a three-way campaign meant a sure victory for Sen. Lee. Florida US Rep. Al Lawson (D-Tallahassee) has difficult choices ahead of him in determining where to seek re-election in the north Florida region. The new Florida congressional map collapses his current district. The Politico publication reports yesterday that Mr. Lawson is leaning toward challenging Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) in the new 2nd District, a R+16 CD but one that does include Rep. Lawson’s home base of Tallahassee.
Former Brookline Selectwoman Jesse Mermell, who lost the 2020 Democratic primary to current US Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton) by just one percentage point, announced yesterday that she will not return for a re-match. Therefore, Rep. Auchincloss becomes a prohibitive favorite for re-nomination and re-election. The Massachusetts primary is not until September 6th, and the candidate filing deadline is May 31st.
First Congressional District Republicans convened over the weekend to potentially endorse a candidate in the special election to replace the late Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-Blue Earth/Rochester). Though state Rep. Jeremy Munson (R-Lake Crystal) attracted 55% of the delegate vote, it was not enough to secure the official endorsement. Doing so requires 60 percent. This means we will see an open special election primary on May 24th with no officially endorsed candidate, though Rep. Munson appears to be a clear front runner.
US Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo), posted only 41% of the convention vote on the first ballot, which was just enough to avoid an embarrassing defeat since he did not also opt to obtain petition signatures. The later rounds pushed him to 45%, but the Congressman still must win a Republican primary against the man whom he defeated in a 2017 special election and the 2018 GOP primary, former state Representative Chris Herrod. Despite Rep. Curtis’ poor showing at the party convention, he is still expected to win the primary and general elections.
First District Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) also found wavering support among the delegates. He drew only 34% of the delegate vote, but had already qualified for the primary ballot via the petition signature process. Marketing executive Andrew Badger, who pledges to join the House Freedom Caucus if elected, captured just under 60% of the delegate vote. Mr. Badger and Morgan County Councilwoman Tina Cannon, who also gained ballot access through the petition option, will both oppose Rep. Moore in late June. Reps. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) and Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City) both easily qualified for the ballot with 84 and 68% of the vote, respectively. Both, however, will face petition primaries against attorney Erin Rider and technology executive Jake Hunsacker. Continuing a string of adverse rulings from judges over maps that the corresponding state legislature had passed, another Republican judge has tossed a Republican drawn map. Wyandotte County Judge Bill Klapper declared the map unconstitutional on the basis of racial and partisan gerrymandering of the state’s 3rd District that Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park/Kansas City) represents. He ordered the legislature to draw a new map. Attorney General Derek Schmidt (R), who is running for Governor, said the state will immediately appeal to the Kansas Supreme Court. The state’s candidate filing deadline is June 1st in conjunction with the August 2nd state primary.
|
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
April 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|