The new Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission released the first preliminary map of the new redistricting cycle using Census Bureau estimates as their basis. While utilizing estimates and sampling is not permitted under a 1996 US Supreme Court ruling, the first draw does give us an idea of where Colorado’s new seat might be placed. Answer: the region north of Denver that includes the Arvada-Westminster-Thornton area, which would serve as the anchor population for the state’s new 8th Congressional District.
The 2020 election cycle did not turn out well for former Democratic state Senator and 2018 Lt. Governor nominee Rita Hart, as she ended up losing the open congressional race by a miniscule six votes to freshman House member Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Ottumwa). Now, the political tea leaves are suggesting Ms. Hart will not return for a re-match. A local Iowa political blog is suggesting the Democratic leadership is looking at freshman state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D-Iowa City) as a potential congressional candidate Ms. Bohannan is a law professor at the University of Iowa outside of her legislative duties.
The nation’s second closest congressional race, New York Rep. Claudia Tenney’s (R-New Hartford) 109 vote victory over then-Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-Utica), also won’t see a re-match. Yesterday, Mr. Brindisi said he would not return to challenge Rep. Tenney in what will be a very different district.
With New York losing a congressional seat, it appears that this southwestern New York area, and particularly so with neighboring US Rep. Tom Reed (R-Corning) retiring, could witness two districts collapsed into one. Doing so, and both districts are way low on population so such a draw would likely pass legal muster, would likely make Rep. Tenney more vulnerable in a Republican primary than in the next general election. State Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz (D-Suffolk County), the daughter of America’s first Latino astronaut, Franklin Chang-Diaz, announced that she will enter the Democratic gubernatorial primary next year. Already in the race are former state Sen. Ben Downing and Harvard University professor Danielle Allen. Two-term Gov. Charlie Baker (R) has yet to make his political plans known for the 2022 election cycle. If he chooses to run, the Governor will be favored to win re-election once more as a Republican in this most Democratic of states.
To date, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) has had a free ride to re-election for a third full term, but a potential Republican challenger confirms he is considering launching his candidacy. Air Force veteran Eli Bremer, who represented the United States in the 2008 Summer Olympics in the pentathlon event and will serve as an NBC Sports commentator in the upcoming 2021 games, confirms he met with National Republican Senatorial Committee officials but has yet to make any final decision about running.
Tom Perez, the former Democratic National Committee chairman who didn’t have much of a public role in President Biden’s election campaign and has not received any federal appointment, became the tenth Democrat yesterday to announce his candidacy for Governor of Maryland. The group is vying to replace Republican Gov. Larry Hogan who is ineligible to seek a third term.
According to polling before Mr. Perez made his announcement, he was running third in the Democratic primary behind former Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker and state Comptroller Peter Franchot. The eventual Democratic nominee is favored to win the 2022 general election. Lina Hidalgo (D), who won the Harris County Judge (Executive) position in a 2018 upset in the Lone Star State’s largest county (over 4.62 million people), is being talked about in Democratic circles as a possible challenger to Gov. Greg Abbott. Ms. Hidalgo is not ruling out a statewide run, but at only 30 years old it is more likely that she will seek re-election to her current position.
While Ms. Hidalgo may not become a gubernatorial candidate in 2022, her long-term forecast to become one is bright. Therefore, she likely represents the top option on the Texas Democrats’ future political bench. Monmouth University conducted a national survey about the concepts driving the national voting procedures debate. The poll (6/9-14; 810 US adults; live interview) finds that, in general, large majorities support making voting easier and requiring voter identification. By a 50-39% margin, the sampling universe believes mail voting should be simpler. A 71-16% majority thinks in-person voting should be less complicated. A total of 80% believe that voter identification should be required, including 84% from the segment categorizing people of color.
It has been speculated upon for some time that Georgia Ethics Commission chairman Jake Evans (R) would challenge two-term Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) in the 2022 congressional race. Yesterday, Mr. Evans resigned from his position, which is likely his first step toward becoming a candidate. He might find an already difficult task becoming even harder, however.
Expect the 6th District to be drawn more heavily Democratic in redistricting to tip the bordering 7th CD of freshman Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Suwanee) toward the Republican column. GOP legislators, who control the redistricting process, will likely attempt to regain one of the two Atlanta metro seats lost to the Democrats by conceding one in order to enhance a Republican challenge in the other district. Yesterday, former Lehigh County Commissioner and manufacturing business owner Lisa Scheller (R) announced that she will return for a re-match with Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) next year. The Congresswoman was re-elected on a 52-48% count. Redistricting will change this district, but it is probable that the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton seat will remain as a competitive CD.
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