Two days ago, we reported upon a new Axis Research survey (9/17-19) that found Sen. Jon Tester (D) and state Auditor Matt Rosendale (R) locked in a 44-44% tie. Now, Gravis Marketing releases their Montana survey (9/19-22; 710 MT likely voters) that gives Sen. Tester a four-point lead, 49-45%. While the Gravis data is more consistent with other published polls, all of the available polling suggests that this campaign is getting much tighter.
Monmouth University has been an active pollster of late and publishes results under several different turnout models. Interestingly, their most recent polls are actually showing Democrats performing better under a registered voter model than a “Democrat surge.”
The new Monmouth poll in Virginia’s 7th District is a case in point. According to the survey (9/15-24; 400 VA-7 potential voters) Rep. Dave Brat (R-Glen Allen) lies in a flat tie with former CIA agent Abigail Spanberger (D) at 47-47% when likely voters are segmented. Under a Democrat surge turnout, Ms. Spanberger takes a 48-45% lead. But, when looking at all “potential voters”, her margin increases to 47-42%. April Freeman, the Democratic political consultant and frequent candidate who won the party nomination in the open 17th District, passed away suddenly on Monday night of an apparent heart attack according to her husband. She was 54 years old.
Yesterday, Florida election authorities indicated that the local Democrats will be able to replace the late Ms. Freeman, but they cannot re-print ballots. Therefore, in order to vote for the new nominee, whoever that person may be, supporters will have to punch Ms. Freeman’s name. Any Freeman vote will count for the replacement nominee. Republican state Sen. Greg Steube becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the open seat in November. Rep. Tom Rooney (R-Okeechobee) is retiring. The University of North Florida’s polling unit went into the field again (9/17-20; 603 FL likely voters via live interview) to test the Sunshine State major political campaigns. In the Senate race they find, like virtually every other pollster, that Sen. Bill Nelson (D) and Gov. Rick Scott (R) are locked in a flat tie at 45%. The polls have been varying only a point or two for a number of months, and it is clear that the campaign’s last month will be very active. A turnout surge from one side or the other will likely be the deciding factor. More polls have put Gov. Scott ahead but, with the tight margins that we’ve seen in this race for weeks, anything can happen in November.
Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Cincinnati) has already been waging a tough campaign against his opponent, Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Aftab Pureval (D). Both candidates have been streaming a barrage of negative ads into the southwestern Ohio media market, but the Chabot/National Republican Congressional Committee/Congressional Leadership Fund combination of audio and video messages appear to be tarnishing Mr. Pureval’s image.
According to a new American Viewpoint survey for the CLF (9/18-20; 400 OH-1 likely voters), Rep. Chabot is now leading the race, 46-39%. The 1st District contains about half the city of Cincinnati and 63% of Hamilton County. It then annexes all of Warren County to the northeast. Two days ago, we reported that Cook County Commissioner Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D), despite preparing to win a congressional seat for the first time, is already looking toward running to succeed retiring Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D). Yesterday, another member of the Chicago congressional delegation made a declaration about the Mayor’s race. Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Chicago), first elected in a 2009 special election, said that he will not enter the 2019 open Mayor’s race, choosing instead, presumably, to remain in the US House.
Ever since his surprise victory in the August 28th Florida Democratic gubernatorial primary, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum has held a small lead over resigned Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Palm Coast/Daytona Beach). The aforementioned University of North Florida poll (see Florida Senate above) sustains this pattern. They find Mayor Gillum topping Mr. DeSantis, 47-43%, which is wholly consistent with other public data.
Businessman Fred Hubbell (D) has crafted a small lead against Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), according to the Des Moines-based Selzer & Company polling firm. Their new Hawkeye State poll (9/17-20; 801 IA adults; 555 IA likely voters) sees Mr. Hubbell holding a slight 43-41% edge over the state’s new Governor.
Ms. Reynolds became Iowa’s chief executive when the former incumbent, Terry Branstad (R), was appointed US Ambassador to China. The poll shows the Governor’s approval rating dipping to 46:38% from 51:33% earlier in the year, which largely explains Mr. Hubbell now taking the lead. Two September polls suggest that the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s a (NRSC) attack campaign upon two-term Sen. Jon Tester (D) is likely working. An Axis Research poll conducted for the NRSC (9/17-19; sample size not released but did claim to have a MT likely voter response universe) finds the Senator and Republican opponent Matt Rosendale, the Montana State Auditor, tied at 44%. An independent poll taken shortly before the Axis study from CBS News/YouGov (9/10-14; 453 MT likely voters) forecasted Sen. Tester to be holding only a two-point margin, 47-45%.
A pair of interest groups released their own Public Policy Polling Texas survey, but are the responses being used twice? Both the liberal advocacy groups End Citizens United and Protect our Care were in the field with PPP during the September 19-20 period with what were largely push polls containing questions on campaign finance for the former group and healthcare for the latter. The sample size for End Citizens United was 613, while the Protect our Care study lists 603 responses. Not surprisingly, the ballot test result for each was virtually the same: Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) by three percentage points, 49-46% (End Citizens United) and 48-45% (Protect our Care).
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