State Rep. Jeremy Munson (R-Crystal Lake), who lost the special primary election to succeed the late US Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) by just 427 votes, confirms he is running to win the regular primary election. This means that former state Rep. Brad Finstad (R), who won the special primary, must continue conducting two separate campaigns through the August 9th election.
In slightly different district configurations, Mr. Finstad must separately win the special general election against former Hormel Corporation CEO Jeffrey Ettinger (D), and the nomination for the regular term since the special general is being run concurrently with the regular statewide primary. With Mr. Munson competing in the regular election, the confusing scenario of having two different District 1 Republican winners could occur. With the only public post-special primary poll suggesting a dead heat between Messrs. Finstad and Ettinger, so many mixed messages could yield a Democratic special election upset. According to a new Grassroots Targeting survey (7/13-19; 625 NJ-1 likely general election voters), New Jersey Rep. Donald Norcross (D-Camden City) lies barely beyond the polling margin of error in yet another potential warning sign for Democrats.
The GT results find Rep. Norcross topping Republican nominee Claire Gustafson, 49-44%, despite the fact that 83% of the respondents said they have not heard of the GOP nominee. To underscore matters, Rep. Norcross’ favorability index has dropped to 42:41% favorable to unfavorable. This contrasts with his 2020 re-election margin of 62-38%, similar to what President Biden recorded in the district. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NJ-1 as D+20, so seeing a close poll featuring an unknown Republican with little money from this district is surprising to say the least. The Battleground Connect organization tested the Arizona GOP Senate field (7/17-18; 800 AZ likely Republican primary voters; live interview) and found businessman Jim Lamon bouncing back into the lead over venture capitalist Blake Masters and Attorney General Mark Brnovich. The spread is 33-28-16%, which is the second time Mr. Lamon has placed first in five publicly released July polls.
The lead is seesawing between Messrs. Lamon and Masters with AG Brnovich generally registering a distant third. Since April, both Lamon and Masters have each topped the field in seven published surveys. The Arizona primary is Tuesday, and the volatility in the surveys suggest we will see a close finish. The GOP winner then challenges Sen. Mark Kelly (D) in November. The Victory Research organization polled the Illinois Senate contest between incumbent Tammy Duckworth (D) and attorney and conservative activist Kathy Salvi, wife of former state Representative and two-time statewide Republican nominee Al Salvi. The survey (7/17-19; 1,208 IL likely general election voters) arrived at a much closer result than one would have expected.
According to the VR data, Sen. Duckworth’s lead over Ms. Salvi is 43-34%. The result is surprising not so much in the margin between the two candidates, but that the Senator is so far below the 50% mark. It is still likely that Ms. Duckworth wins re-election in the Autumn, but seeing such a poll after a June 28th primary that yielded a higher turnout for the Republican Senate primary than the Democratic side suggests the Salvi campaign might receive at least a slight boost. The same polling sample yielded Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) only a 49-39% spread against new GOP gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey, a Louisville area state Senator. Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson (D), whose campaign for US Senate never caught fire, has formally withdrawn his candidacy. In his exit statement, Mr. Nelson endorsed Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who is in a tight race with state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski and Milwaukee Bucks basketball club executive Alex Lasry for the Democratic nomination. The winner of the August 9th Democratic primary will face Sen. Ron Johnson (R) in the general election.
State Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) has spent over $8 million of his own money to attempt to win the open Detroit anchored 13th Congressional District race. It appears his expenditures are working. A Target Insyght survey (7/19-22; 500 MI-13 likely Democratic primary voters) finds Rep. Thanedar leading Michigan Civil Right Commission member Portia Roberson and state Sen. Adam Hollier (D-Detroit), among six other contenders, including John Conyers, III, son of the late veteran Congressman. Mr. Thanedar’s polling margin is 22-17-16-7% over Ms. Roberson, Sen. Hollier, and Mr. Conyers.
Mr. Thanedar’s personal spending edge is 8:1 over his next closest financial rival, Sen. Hollier, but that does not count a seven-figure expenditure from the American-Israel Publica Affairs Committee intended to promote the latter man. The Michigan primary is Tuesday. The 13th District is open because Rep. Brenda Lawrence (D-Southfield) is retiring and Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) chose to seek re-election in the new 12th District, thus departing from the new CD-13. A new Change Research poll for candidate Elizabeth Holtzman finds the Democratic primary for this open seat turning into a race that any one of six candidates could win. This is the first poll conducted and released since former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) exited the contest because of poor performance.
The CR poll (7/19-23; 437 NY-10 likely Democratic primary voters; online) finds former Trump impeachment counsel Daniel Goldman taking first position with 14% preference. Ms. Holtzman, who was last on a ballot in 1993, a losing re-election effort for NYC Comptroller, places second at 12% support. Tied with 10% are NYC Councilwoman Carlina Rivera, who led the last two published surveys, state Assemblywomen Yuh-Line Niou D-Manhattan) and Jo Anne Simon (D-Brooklyn), and US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-Westchester County). The new 10th, an open seat created when Reps. Carolyn Maloney and Jerrold Nadler were paired in a new 12th CD, encompasses Lower Manhattan and part of Brooklyn. The Democratic primary winner on August 23rd will claim the seat in the general election. Dan Jones & Associates, polling for the Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute at the University of Utah (7/11-13; 801 UT registered voters), projects Sen. Mike Lee (R) with only a 41-36% lead over Independent Evan McMullin. This is the closest general election poll reported in the current election cycle.
The Democrats coalesced behind Mr. McMullin instead of fielding a candidate of their own. The move looks to be working since Sen. Lee would be faring better in a three-way race with a Democratic candidate peeling away from Mr. McMullin the most partisan party members. Sen. Lee is likely in better position that this one poll indicates, but the Utah race is certainly beginning to attract some national attention. Now that the June 30th Federal Election Commission disclosure reports have been released, we can measure the financial wherewithal of the candidates in the most competitive Senate races. In each instance, the top fundraising challenger is the point race listed against an incumbent or open seat contender. The listed category is cash-on-hand at the June 30th reporting deadline:
Alaska: Sen. Murkowski (R): $6.1 million Kelly Tshibaka (R): $1.08 million Arizona: Sen. Kelly (D): $24.9 million Jim Lamon (R): $2.1 million Florida: Sen. Rubio (R): $14.6 million Val Demings (D): $12.6 million Georgia: Sen. Warnock (D): $22.2 million Herschel Walker (R): $6.8 million Iowa: Sen. Grassley (R): $4.0 million Michael Franken (D): $1.1 million Missouri: Vicky Hartzler (R): $1.5 million Lucas Kunce (D): $871,000 NC: Cheri Beasley (D): $4.8 million Ted Budd (R): $1.8 million NH: Sen. Hassan (D): $7.4 million Chuck Morse (R): $975,000 Nevada: Sen. Masto (D): $9.8 million Adam Laxalt (R): $2.1 million Ohio: Tim Ryan (D): $3.6 million J.D. Vance (R): $629,000 PA: John Fetterman (D): $5.5 million Mehmet Oz (R): $1.1 million Utah: Sen. Lee (R): $2.5 million Evan McMullin (I): $1.3 million WA: Sen. Murray (D): $7.5 million Tiffany Smiley (R): $3.5 million WI: Sen. Johnson (R): $3.6 million Mandela Barnes (D): $1.5 million Former Congressman Mark Critz (D), who represented the Johnstown anchored 12th District from May of 2010 when he won a special election to replace the late Rep. John Murtha (D), until his defeat in the 2012 regular election, will be back on the ballot in November. The Pennsylvania Board of Elections has ruled that Mr. Critz received enough write-in votes during the May primary election to qualify as the Democratic nominee in the 13th CD that incumbent John Joyce (R-Hollidaysburg) represents. Though Rep. Joyce is a prohibitive favorite in the R+49 district, the Democrats now have a credible standard bearer for the general election.
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