IL-7: Exploratory Committee Filed: Veteran Illinois Congressman Danny Davis (D-Chicago) was first elected to the US House in 1996 after serving both as a Cook County Commissioner and on the Chicago City Council. Though his district is heavily Democratic and safe from a Republican opponent, Rep. Davis did have a relatively close call in the 2022 Democratic primary when he defeated community organizer Kina Collins by a 52-45% count. In 2020, he defeated the same opponent with a 60-13% victory margin.
At 81 years of age, he is considered a retirement prospect for the 2024 election. That being the case, Chicago City Treasurer and former state Representative Melissa Conyears-Ervin (D) yesterday formed a congressional exploratory committee for the 7th District. This is a March 2024 Democratic primary campaign to watch. IN-3: Former Rep. Stutzman Launches Comeback: Indiana Republican Marlin Stutzman, who served three terms in the US House before losing the 2016 US Senate Republican primary to then-Congressman Todd Young, announced yesterday that he will attempt to reclaim the seat he vacated eight years ago. The race, however, will be no gimme for the former Congressman and ex-state legislator. Already announced as candidates are state Senator Andy Zay (R-Huntington) and former Circuit Judge Wendy Davis, among others. In a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates R+34, the successor to Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City), who is now running for Senate, will be decided in the May 2024 Republican primary. MI-10: Another Democrat Surfaces to Challenge Rep. James: Yesterday, a third Democratic candidate came forward to compete for the party nomination to challenge Michigan freshman US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills). Emily Busch, a gun control activist and defeated state Representative candidate, said she will run for Congress next year. Already in the Democratic primary are attorney Brian Jaye and financial consultant and ex-state Rep candidate Diane Young. It is likely that 2022 nominee and former judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga will return for a re-match. He will be heavily favored in the Democratic primary having lost to Mr. James by just a half-percentage point. The 10th District 2024 campaign again promises to be highly competitive and is a national Democratic congressional target. Arizona: Trump Up in AZ GOP Primary Poll; DeSantis Leads in General: Two presidential polls were released in critically important Arizona, one for the Republican primary and the other isolating the candidates against President Biden. It is abundantly clear that Republicans must bring the Grand Canyon State back into their Electoral College coalition if they are to have any chance of winning the 2024 national election.
The Republican primary survey posts former President Donald Trump to a substantial advantage over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. The latter man would lead President Biden in a general election poll, however, while Mr. Trump would not. JL Partners (4/10-12; 550 AZ registered Republican and Undeclared voters) finds Mr. Trump holding a 47-24-4-4-3-2% advantage over Gov. DeSantis, ex-Vice President Mike Pence, former US Rep. Liz Cheney, ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, respectively, in the GOP primary study. Public Opinion Strategies surveyed the state’s general electorate (4/11-13; 500 AZ likely voters; live interview) and forecasts Gov. DeSantis leading President Biden, 48-42%, while Mr. Trump trails 45-44%. Pennsylvania: Ex-Rep. Rothfus Considering Senate: Republican Keith Rothfus served three terms in the US House from 2013 to 2019. He was defeated for re-election in 2018 when the state Supreme Court map collapsed Rep. Rothfus’ Pittsburgh area seat with that of fellow Rep. Conner Lamb (D). In that Democratic wave election year, Rep. Lamb defeated Mr. Rothfus with a 56-44% margin. The victorious Congressman would then lose the 2022 US Senate Democratic primary to current incumbent John Fetterman, however.
Though the national and state Republican leadership are making it clear they would like to see 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick return to challenge Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D), Mr. Rothfus is indicating that he would have the ability to become a consensus candidate. There is yet no word from Mr. McCormick himself if he will again become a Senate contender. The Republican leadership certainly wants to put this seat in play but defeating Sen. Casey will be a tall order regardless of who becomes the GOP nominee. Wisconsin: Rep. Tiffany Okays Senate Website: Reports are surfacing that Wisconsin US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) has approved the purchase of US Senate campaign domain names. The Congressman indicated, however, that this act does not necessarily mean he will actually become a statewide candidate. Mr. Tiffany won a special election to the 7th Congressional District in 2020 with 57% of the vote, and then a full term with 61% later that year. He was re-elected in 2022 with a 62% vote margin. Should he run for the Senate and win the Republican primary, Rep. Tiffany would then face Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) who recently announced that she will compete for a third term. Kentucky: AG Cameron Securing First Place in New Poll: Now less than one month before the 2023 Kentucky statewide primary election, a new Emerson College poll (4/10-11; 900 KY likely Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & text) sees Attorney General Daniel Cameron continuing to lead the GOP gubernatorial primary despite being under intense attack from his main opponent.
The poll results find AG Cameron leading former UN Ambassador Kelly Craft 30-24%. Trailing are Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles (15%), disbarred attorney Eric Deters (6%), and state Auditor Mike Harmon (2%). The winner of the May 16th primary battle will then challenge Gov. Andy Beshear (D) in the November general election. Mike Pompeo: Won’t Run; Youngkin Now on Hold: Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R) announced on Friday that he will not join the 2024 presidential field. Only a long shot victory path existed for the former Secretary, CIA Director, and US Representative from Kansas. Additionally, according to a New York Times report, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has put his fledging presidential effort on hold and is now apparently unlikely to enter the race.
To date, the only announced candidates are former President Donald Trump, ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R), and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott has filed a presidential exploratory committee. While President Biden has repeatedly said he “plans to run again,” he has still not made a formal announcement. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and ex-Vice President Mike Pence are both expected to join the campaign in the next few weeks. Arizona: ’22 Candidate Lamon Won’t Return: Former solar company CEO Jim Lamon, who placed second in the 2022 US Senate race with 28.1% of the Republican primary vote, says he will not return for another run this year and is instead endorsing Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb (R). Several other Republicans, including 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and Senatorial nominee Blake Masters, are reportedly considering the race.
The 2024 Senate race, expected to be one of the most competitive in the country, likely will feature a three-way contest with incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema running as either an Independent or the nominee of the No Labels Party, which has qualified for the ballot in Arizona. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) is the only announced Democratic contender and is fast becoming a consensus candidate. NY-3: Ex-Rep. Suozzi Now Considering: Looking at the negative media circus that has surrounded freshman New York Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island), which certainly lessens his chances of winning re-election in 2024, former Congressman Tom Suozzi (D), who left the House to run a longshot 2022 campaign for Governor, confirms that he is now considering making a congressional comeback attempt next year.
Regardless of whether Mr. Suozzi runs, the NY-3 race will be a top Democratic conversion opportunity. It is probable that the Republican leadership will support a new GOP candidate in hopes of saving the seat. Democrats need only to convert five seats to recapture the House majority, and this race is certainly their number one target. NY-22: New Candidate Emerges: Last November, freshman Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) held the state’s new 22nd Congressional District that former Congressman John Katko (R) represented for eight years before retiring. Then, and now, the Syracuse anchored seat leans toward the Democrats (FiveThirtyEight: D+2; Dave’s Redistricting App: 53.4D – 43.1R partisan lean) but has elected a Republican to the US House in the last five consecutive elections. Late last year, Manlius Town Councilwoman Katelyn Kriesel (D) announced that she would compete for the Democratic nomination to challenge Rep. Williams. Her campaign proved short-lived, however, since she dropped her bid at the beginning of March. Now, a new Democratic contender has emerged. DeWitt Town Councilwoman and US Air Force veteran Sarah Klee Hood (D) came forward at the end of last week to enter the race. Count on this race being highly competitive in the 2024 general election cycle no matter who ultimately becomes the Democratic nominee. Louisiana: Gov Candidate to Switch Races: The surprise announcement from Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin (R) that he is not going to seek re-election has now changed the Governor’s race. State House Speaker Clay Schexnayder (R-Gonzales), who was clearly laying the groundwork to enter the open Governor’s race, has now adjusted his political course and announced his run for the open Secretary of State’s position.
The top Republicans already in the Governor’s race are Attorney General Jeff Landry, state Treasurer John Schroder, and former Chamber of Commerce CEO Stephen Waguespack. Democrats look to be coalescing around former state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. The Louisiana primary is October 14, 2023. If no candidate receives majority support, a two-person runoff will occur on November 18th. Sen. Tim Scott: Forms Exploratory Committee: South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R) announced the formation of a presidential exploratory committee, which is likely his first official step toward becoming a national candidate. It’s hard to see a Republican nomination victory path for the Senator, however. South Carolina is obviously the heart of his support base, but with the state’s former Governor, Nikki Haley, already in the race even that is diminished.
Should Sen. Scott advance into official candidacy, it is likely that former President Donald Trump will be the chief beneficiary. The more crowded the candidate field, the more favorable to Mr. Trump. |
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