Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho (D) had been talking about launching a primary challenge to Gov. David Ige. With US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa already in the race, however, the path for Carvalho to upset them both becomes very narrow. Considering the new political landscape, Mr. Carvalho yesterday announced that he will run for Lt. Governor, instead. Incumbent Shan Tsutsui (D) has already announced he is not seeking re-election. But, Maui Mayor Alan Arakawa and three state Senators are already in the Democratic primary, thereby yielding a highly competitive nomination contest.
--Jim Ellis Texas has always been a key focal point in national redistricting, and a seemingly unrelated event announced yesterday could change the outlook. Texas House Speaker Joe Straus (R-San Antonio), who has basically served as a coalition Speaker since he gets more support from the chamber’s Democrats than members of his own party, announced that he will retire from the state House. This means the body will have a new Speaker in 2019, one who will likely be more favorable to the Republicans’ redistricting position. That could become a major factor in dealing with lingering redistricting lawsuits if congressional or state legislative maps are ordered re-drawn, and certainly in the 2021 session where all district boundaries will again be re-drawn, post-census.
--Jim Ellis The 1892 polling firm, a company that has conducted several surveys for North Dakota political campaigns, released their new study for state Sen. Tom Campbell (R-Grafton), an announced GOP US Senate primary candidate. The poll (10/11-12; 500 ND registered voters; 400 ND likely Republican primary voters) gives Sen. Campbell a 32-24% lead over former at-large US Rep. Rick Berg in a hypothetical GOP primary. Mr. Berg has not announced his Senate candidacy, and more than likely will not do so. The general election numbers are highly surprising, however, and will have to be confirmed in future surveys. The results: Campbell leading Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D), 44-41%. Currently, the Senator is favored for re-election, but polls such as this suggest a highly competitive campaign is on the North Dakota political horizon.
--Jim Ellis A new Hampton University Center for Public Policy survey (10/18-22; 750 VA registered voters self-described as likely to cast a ballot in the November 7th Governor’s race) gives Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie his biggest lead of the campaign. According to the Hampton CPP results, the GOP nominee has a 41-33% advantage over Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D). It has been clear that Gillespie has a clear surge in momentum, and this poll certainly quantifies the movement. We will need confirming data for this to become a trend, but there is no doubt that the race has changed direction.
--Jim Ellis Gov. Greg Abbott (R) appears a sure bet for re-election next year, but Democrats are still attempting to recruit a viable challenger. After Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) chose to seek re-election instead of running statewide, the party leaders are now looking to businessman Andrew White, the son of recently deceased former Gov. Mark White (D). The latter man served one term as Governor, from 1983-87. He came to office defeating Republican Gov. Bill Clements in 1982, but lost to him in a re-match four years later. Andrew White is expressing interest in launching a campaign.
--Jim Ellis In a profanity-laced interview on Tuesday evening, potential US Senate candidate Robert Ritchie, better known as rock star “Kid Rock,” said he is not entering next year’s race against three-term incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D). Most believed his original statements about entering elective politics, and even some polling that showed Ritchie performing well against Sen. Stabenow, were a publicity stunt to further his music career and now we see that such an analysis is likely correct. Currently, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bob Young and businessman John James are in the Republican primary. Veteran US Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) continues to maintain that he is considering the statewide run and early fundraising suggests his musings are serious.
--Jim Ellis Political rumors have been rampant for months that Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Palm Coast/Daytona Beach) will soon launch his campaign for Governor, but he has yet to do so. The anticipation of such a move, however, has spurred wealthy businessman and retired US Navy veteran John Ward to enter the Republican congressional primary.
In 2016, Rep. DeSantis announced his US Senate campaign when it appeared incumbent Marco Rubio (R) would not seek re-election. When the latter man eventually decided to become a re-election candidate, the then-sophomore Congressman retreated to his House district and won a 59-41% re-election victory. The situation could turn interesting. With other candidates such as state Agriculture Commissioner and former Congressman Adam Putnam (R) jumping out to a big lead in the Governor’s race, it may not be such a clear-cut decision for Rep. DeSantis to actually enter the statewide campaign. --Jim Ellis Santa Barbara businessman Justin Fareed (R), who played on the UCLA football team, announced that he will seek a re-match with freshman Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-Santa Barbara). Last November, Mr. Carbajal won a 53-47% victory in a California coastal district that voted 57-36% for Hillary Clinton. Combined spending for the 2016 congressional race exceeded $5 million, and with Carbajal already having more than $1.1 million in his campaign account and Fareed demonstrating he can attract more than $2 million to a political effort, this will again be a costly campaign. Rep. Carbajal begins the race as a solid favorite for re-election, however.
--Jim Ellis Fresh from completing his “listening tour” of the Volunteer State, former US Rep. Stephen Fincher (R-Crockett County) officially announced that the will join the open seat Republican primary campaign to succeed retiring Sen. Bob Corker (R). Mr. Fincher becomes the second major Republican candidate to enter the open contest, following 7th District US Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) who immediately announced upon Sen. Corker making public his decision not to seek a third term.
Ms. Blackburn has moved quickly to lock up some key conservative support, such as the Club for Growth, while Fincher has taken hits for his family’s agri-business enterprise accepting government subsidies and voting in favor of funding the Export-Import Bank. Thus, the race is already adopting early campaign contrast points. The third GOP candidate is Andy Ogles, the former Tennessee director for Americans for Prosperity. He had originally announced a primary challenge against Sen. Corker, but remains in the race even though the incumbent will retire. The Tennessee primary isn’t held until early August and, with a candidate filing deadline to be scheduled sometime in April, much time remains for this candidate field of contenders to solidify. On the other side of the political ledger, Democratic former Gov. Phil Bredesen has backed away from earlier comments about not running for the seat, and now says he will decide whether to become a candidate in the next few weeks. --Jim Ellis Retired Army Colonel Steve Toft (R) announced yesterday that he will challenge 11-term veteran Wisconsin Rep. Ron Kind (D-La Crosse) next year. Republicans are more optimistic about the state’s western region since President Trump carried this district in November (49-45%), and Gov. Scott Walker is expected to run strong at top of ticket here. Though only 54 years of age, Rep. Kind is entering his 22nd year in the House. Armed with more than $2.8 million in his campaign account, the Congressman will not be easy to unseat no matter how the state’s outside political dynamics unfold.
--Jim Ellis |
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