Virginia: Two New Polls

Christopher Newport University and The Polling Company/WomanTrend each conducted surveys last week for the upcoming Virginia Governor’s race.  It appears that slight skews are present in both.  The Newport U poll (part of a three-survey track; 10/20-25; 812 VA likely voters from a pool of 947 interviews) finds Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) leading Republican Ed Gillespie, 50-43%, the first time the Democrat has attracted majority support in any CNU poll or track.  But, with a tighter than normal 50:44% conservative versus liberal split, the polling universe skews slightly left.
 
The Polling Company study (10/23-26; 800 VA likely voters) also went into the field, but arrives at a different conclusion.  They find the two candidates tied at 44%.  But, with a Democrat/Republican split at 43:42%, this polling sample slants several points to the right.  Even in this sample, however, the hard vote – those who say they will not change their minds – favors Northam, 32-28%.

--Jim Ellis