Illinois: Likely an Outlier: An Osage Research survey (10/13-15; 600 IL likely general election voters; live interview) reports a ballot test that posts Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) to only a 44-42% lead over state Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Louisville) with a right and wrong track result trending 35:56% in the downward direction. The ballot test is likely an outlier because the previous six polls, taken during the months of September and October, give Gov. Pritzker an average lead of 13 percentage points. This, however, is yet another piece of survey research showing a resurgence around the country for GOP candidates.
Michigan: Exact Polling: It’s rare to see two pollsters in the field at the same time producing a duplicate result. That’s what we have seen in the Michigan Governor’s race, however. Emerson College and the Cygnal research firm surveyed the Wolverine State electorate over the same October 12-14 period, and both found Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer leading Republican nominee Tudor Dixon by a 49-44% count. This represents one of the closest results we’ve seen for this race and is more credible since two independent pollsters each detected the identical result. Pennsylvania: Oz Closing the Gap: The AARP polling series that Republican pollster Fabrizio Ward and the Democratic data firm Impact Research jointly conduct again tested the Pennsylvania electorate. Their new poll (10/4-12; 1,400 PA likely general election voters; live interview & text) projects Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) as having only a 48-46% lead over Republican nominee Mehmet Oz, the television doctor. Previously, the AARP poll June poll found Mr. Fetterman holding a larger six-point advantage.
Within the same period, The Trafalgar Group also ran a PA survey (10/8-11; 1,078 PA likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) and arrived at a virtually identical 47-45% split. It is becoming clear, with early voting underway that this critical Senate race is going down to the wire, just as we saw back in May when the state Republican primary ended in a razor thin result. In fact, from the last ten polls released of this race, seven of the ten found Mr. Fetterman leading by four percentage points or less. MN-2: Close Again: In a surprise 2020 finish, Republican challenger Tyler Kistner, a military veteran who hadn’t gotten much national attention, lost only a two-point battle to Rep. Angie Craig (D-Eagan), 48-46%. It appears the two are headed for another razor-thin finish this year in their re-match campaign. A just released Survey USA poll (10/15-16; 586 MN-2 likely general election voters; automated telephone & online) projects Ms. Craig to be holding a bare 46-45% lead over Mr. Kistner in a polling result wholly consistent with this electorate’s voting history.
Both Minnesota’s southern sector districts, the 1st and 2nd, are important toward determining the new House majority. The GOP would conceivably be on a majority track by winning one of the state’s two southern swing seats. Should their candidates win both, a big Republican night could be in store. If the Democrats win both, such a performance would suggest that the party would have a legitimate chance of holding their slim majority. Georgia: Disconnect with Senate Race: Two more polls were released that find Gov. Brian Kemp (R) leading former state House Minority Leader and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams (D), and running substantially ahead of Republican Senatorial candidate Herschel Walker. The juxtaposition makes these races interesting to watch.
Insider Advantage (10/16; 550 GA likely general election voters) gives Gov. Kemp a 50-43% lead over Ms. Abrams, but also sees Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock posting a 46-43% edge over Mr. Walker. Similarly, while Landmark Communications (10/15-17; 500 GA likely general election voters) projects Gov. Kemp’s lead at 51-45%, the firm derives a 46-46% tie between Sen. Warnock and Mr. Walker. Therefore, we continually see a relatively substantial single-digit swing in Sen. Warnock’s favor when comparing the gubernatorial results from consistent polling samples. This suggests we could see a split decision from these major Georgia statewide races. New York: More Data Finding Tightening Race: Quinnipiac University has joined the group of pollsters projecting the New York Governor’s race between Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), on the ballot for the first time in her own right after ascending to the position when former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) resigned, and US Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley/East Long Island) as a close race. The Q-Poll (10/12-16; 1,617 NY likely general election voters; live interview) sees the spread between Gov. Hochul and Rep. Zeldin dropping to 50-46%. Four of the last seven polls see the contest falling between two and six percentage points, which represents a notable improvement for Mr. Zeldin. With New York early voting not beginning until October 29th, this race’s patterns still have a significant period in which to firm. North Carolina: Finally, Some Movement: The open North Carolina Senate race has been languishing as a dead heat virtual tie between US Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance) and former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) for months. Yesterday, East Carolina University released a survey (10/10-13; 902 NC likely voters; text & online) that finds Rep. Budd pulling away to a 50-44% advantage.
According to the poll analysis, the change is coming from the female sector. In the university’s September poll, Ms. Beasley led among women with a substantial 52-41% margin. The current respondent sample sees her lead among the female respondents dropping to 48-46%. Among men, Mr. Budd leads 54-39%. Oklahoma: Both Senate Races Headed Toward GOP: While two polls find the Democratic candidate trending ahead in the Oklahoma gubernatorial race, the same polls, Amber Integrated study (10/13-15; 500 OK likely general election voters) and Ascend Action, polling for Fox News Oklahoma TV stations (10/10-12; 638 OK likely general election voters; live interview), projects the Republican candidates in both the regular and special US Senate elections to be in strong position. Amber Integrated’s regular election poll shows Sen. James Lankford (R) holding a 52-36% margin over Democrat Madison Horn. In the special, Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Westville) leads former US Rep. Kendra Horn (D) by a similar 52-39% count. Ascend Action sees Sen. Lankford leading 51-37%, and Rep. Mullin posting a 50-39% spread. GA-2: Rep. Bishop Up Only Four: A recent Trafalgar Group survey of the southwest Georgia electorate (10/14-16; 515 GA-2 likely Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) holding only a 50-46% advantage over GOP attorney Chris West, suggesting yet another close congressional race.
This one, unlike several others we’ve covered in the past two weeks, is not a particular surprise. Post-redistricting, the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated the new GA-2 seat as a D+4. Therefore, the Trafalgar poll is indicating the district is performing exactly as the voting history yields. Before the 2021 redistricting map was passed, the district was rated D+6. While Rep. Bishop remains the favorite for re-election, this is another pending November 8th electoral contest that merits watching. Oklahoma: Gov. Stitt Trailing in Two Surveys: We are now continuing to see data suggesting that Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is in serious trouble against Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister (D). Two surveys find Ms. Hofmeister claiming a polling lead against the Governor. The Amber Integrated research study (10/13-15; 500 OK likely general election voters) gives Ms. Hofmeister a slight 46-45% edge.
Ascend Action, polling for Fox News Oklahoma TV stations (10/10-12; 638 OK likely general election voters; live interview), sees a much larger Hofmeister lead. The latter poll projects a ballot test of 49-42%. Last week, the small-sample Sooner Poll (10/3-6; 301 OK likely voters) was the first to detect a Hofmeister lead. The news organization found a 47-43% spread. A Democratic upset here would be surprising, but the data is suggesting that such an outcome is a clear possibility. Iowa: Selzer & Company’s Different Result: Yesterday, we reported on a Selzer & Company poll for the Des Moines Register newspaper that sounded warning bells for Sen. Chuck Grassley (R). According to the Senate ballot test, the veteran incumbent led retired US Navy Admiral Mike Franken (D) by a scant 46-43% margin. Now, Selzer releasing its gubernatorial results culled from the same data (10/9-12; 620 IA likely general election voters) should give the Grassley campaign even more cause for concern. The polling sample gives Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) a 52-35% margin against Democratic marketing consultant Diedre DeJear, a strong margin for a Republican candidate in what is typically a swing state. Connecticut: Blumenthal Leads Drops to Five Points: A just released Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey (10/10-13; 1,200 CT likely general election voters; live interview & text) finds Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D) leading his Republican opponent, former Trump appointee Leora Levy (R), by only a 49-44% margin. Though this race has been on the edge of competitiveness for a considerable period, it is highly unlikely that the end result will yield a Republican upset. While Sen. Blumenthal’s victory margin might be less than in years past, he will still comfortably win re-election next month.
Iowa: Race Tightens: The Des Moines Register Poll that Selzer & Company conducts (10/9-12; 620 IA likely general election voters) has routinely been viewed as the most consistently accurate survey of the Iowa electorate. Therefore, the numbers just released over the weekend posting Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) to only a three-point, 46-43%, lead over retired Navy Admiral Michael Franken (D) is being taken seriously. Perhaps the most troubling sign for Sen. Grassley is that Mr. Franken leads 46-35% among self-described independent respondents. The Iowa electorate can swing wildly, but in the most recent elections it has been going the Republicans’ way. Since most of the comparable data found Sen. Grassley holding low double-digit leads, the Selzer poll is a surprise. More attention will be paid to this race if confirming data soon surfaces. NY-17: DCCC Chairman Trails in Own Race: McLaughlin & Associates released a new internal study for the Mike Lawler for Congress campaign (10/12-14; 400 NY-17 likely general election voters; live interview & text) that again shows the Republican state Assemblyman leading veteran New York Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring).
This survey posts Mr. Lawler to a 52-46% advantage. McLaughlin polls from July and September also saw Lawler holding a significant lead. No Democratic poll was released to counter the numbers, but the Maloney campaign spokeswoman responded to the New York Post story about the survey release, saying that the Lawler polling figures are “skewed.” Michigan: Major Polling Conflict: We see a pair of polls presenting opposite looks to the Michigan Governor’s race. The Epic-MRA organization, an entity that frequently surveys the Michigan electorate (10/6-12; 600 MI likely general election voters; live interview) posts Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) to an 11-point, 49-38% edge, including leaners, over online talk show personality Tudor Dixon (R). But, Insider Advantage (10/12; 550 MI likely general election voters) sees a completely different result, placing Ms. Dixon and the Governor into a flat 44-44% tie. Most other polling has produced similar numbers to Epic-MRA, so this is another situation that bears watching if confirming data to the Insider Advantage results soon surface.
New York: Four Polls Showing Increased Competition: Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) has been running consistently ahead of US Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley/East Long Island), but now we see four consecutive polls finding the Republican deficit falling between two and eight percentage points. In chronological order, Schoen Cooperman Research (10/8-12; 824 NY likely general election voters) sees only a 50-44% split between Gov. Hochul, who ascended to her position when Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) resigned, and Congressman Zeldin. Marist College (10/3-6; 900 likely voters) posts a similar 52-44% split. The Trafalgar Group (9/30-10/3; 1,087 likely voters) sees the closest spread, 45-43%. Finally, McLaughlin & Associates (9/21-25; 800 likely voters) recorded a 51-45% result in late September. This is another race on the edge of competitiveness that will likely soon draw more attention. Early voting in New York does not begin until October 29th, so more time exists for this potentially fluid electorate to gel. |
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