Alaska: Sen. Murkowski’s Tenuous Lead: A new Alaska Survey Research organization poll (10/19-22; 1,276 AK likely general election voters; text to online) forecasts a tight US Senate election between incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R) and former state Director of Administration Kelly Tshibaka (R).
The actual vote is projected to break 41-39-16-4% with Sen. Murkowski leading Ms. Tshibaka, Democrat Pat Chesbro, and Independent Buzz Kelley. Such a result would eliminate the fourth-place finisher who has already withdrawn from the race and endorsed Ms. Tshibaka. The first RCV round would eliminate Ms. Chesbro by a closer 41-40-17%. The final RCV round between Sen. Murkowski and Ms. Tshibaka would then break the incumbent’s way, according to the ASR poll, 56-44%. Therefore, while Sen. Murkowski will likely not reach an outright victory in the actual vote, she is positioned to fare well under the ranked choice system. Connecticut: Momentum for Sen. Blumenthal: Last week we saw a Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey that found Sen. Richard Blumenthal’s (D) lead over Republican nominee Leora Levy shrinking to 49-44%. Countering this data is a new survey from Connecticut based Quinnipiac University (10/19-23; 1,879 CT likely general election voters) that restores Sen. Blumenthal to a 56-41% advantage, similar to what the September Q-Poll produced. The latter data is more consistent with other polls of this race, suggesting that the Fabrizio Lee survey may be an outlier. New Hampshire: Not Quite Over: Three recent pollsters find that the New Hampshire Senate race, one many Republicans conceded to Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) once retired Army General Don Bolduc (R) won the September 13th Republican primary, may not yet be clinched. The three pollsters, all surveying the Granite State electorate within the October 17-23 period with sample sizes ranging from 600 to 727 likely NH general election voters, finds Sen. Hassan’s lead dwindling to between one and three percentage points. Fabrizio Ward & Associates, Emerson College, and Insider Advantage, found respective 49-47%, 48-45%, and 48-47% results. Such results suggest this race is headed back to toss-up status. Comments are closed.
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