Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs), who lost the Governor’s race two weeks ago to his congressional colleague, Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque), confirmed yesterday that he will run for chairman of the New Mexico Republican Party early next year, and has not ruled out making yet another attempt to regain the House seat he relinquished to run statewide.
In 2008, Rep. Pearce ran for US Senate only to see a Democrat win the House seat while the Congressman was losing statewide. Mr. Pearce re-claimed the congressional seat in 2010. With attorney Xochitl Torres-Small converting Pearce’s seat to the Democratic column in this election, it is clear that the party will be looking to recruit a strong challenger. Since it would be difficult for the party to find a stronger candidate than Rep. Pearce, a second comeback run to regain the seat he voluntarily ceded would again have to be taken seriously. The Carroll Strategies firm conducted a survey for KOB News 4 in Albuquerque, testing the state’s two open congressional seats that the respective gubernatorial candidates are vacating. If the polling is correct, it appears that each party will keep the seat that it currently occupies.
In Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s open 1st District, former state Democratic Party chair and Tribal Administrator Debra Haaland is well ahead of frequent Republican nominee, Janice Arnold-Jones. The KOB poll (10/29; 452 likely NM-2 likely voters; automated) posts Ms. Haaland to a 51-43% advantage in an Albuquerque anchored seat that has moved solidly into the Democratic column since Ms. Grisham first won here in 2012. In Rep. Steve Pearce’s (R-Hobbs) 2nd District, the KOB poll (10/29; 338 NM-2 likely voters; automated) projects GOP state Rep. Yvette Harrell (R-Alamogordo) to be leading attorney Xochitl Torres-Small (D) by a 47-42% spread. This is a must-win Republican seat, so Ms. Harrell assuming a late lead is welcome news for the candidate and party leaders. New Mexico former Governor and Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson has made a difference in the Senate race in that the well-defined three-way format makes the race closer. Yet, first term incumbent Martin Heinrich (D) is still well positioned to win re-election.
Pacific Market Research conducted a poll for KRQE News 13 in Albuquerque (10/19-24; 400 NM likely voters) and finds Sen. Heinrich leading New Mexico Labor Commission member Mick Rich (R) and Mr. Johnson, 40-28-22%. When undecideds are projected, both Heinrich and Rich gain, but Johnson remains unchanged. The poll only surveyed 400 likely voters, which is a low number for a statewide study in a place with three congressional districts. Sen. Heinrich’s re-election victory is not in doubt, but there is a good chance he will win with only a plurality vote. The aforementioned Pacific Market Research media poll (see New Mexico Senate above) also tested the open Governor’s race. The results from this race appear consistent with other data we’ve seen here. PMR sees Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque) leading Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs), 48-39%.
Again, the sample size of 400 likely voters is low, meaning the error factor is higher. While certain data has shown a closer race, most of the polling gives Ms. Grisham a lead within this poll’s range. Gov. Susana Martinez (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. The NSON Opinion Strategies firm, polling for the Elect Liberty PAC (9/20-24; 932 NM likely voters) finds Libertarian US Senate nominee and ex-two term New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson edging closer to Sen. Martin Heinrich (D). According to the latest poll, Sen. Heinrich draws 35% support with Mr. Johnson solidly in second position at 28%. The Republican nominee, Labor Commission member Mick Rich, drops all the way to 10% according to this particular poll.
Again, it appears that Mr. Johnson can become a credible candidate in this Senate race, but the three-way slate with he and Mr. Rich dividing the right-of-center voting base will likely re-elect Sen. Heinrich with plurality support. The aforementioned NSON Opinion Strategies poll (see New Mexico Senate above) projects a tight gubernatorial contest. In the statewide battle of two US House members, Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque) now holds just a 44-40% lead over Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs). The latest poll, from the Albuquerque Journal (9/7-13) had Ms. Grisham leading 50-43%. Five polls have been taken since the 1st of August, and all give her an average percentage of 48. This contrasts to Mr. Pearce’s average of 42%.
The open southern New Mexico congressional district hasn’t generated a lot of national attention, but that could soon change. While previous polling had posted state Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-Alamogordo) to leads of between two and 14 points, the new Siena College/New York Times survey (9/13-18; 503 NM-2 likely voters) finds attorney Xochitl Torres-Small (D) now claiming a one- point lead, 46-45%. Earlier this week, the Albuquerque Journal released their poll that gave Ms. Herrell a 48-41% advantage.
US Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque) is sustaining a 50-43% advantage over GOP Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs) in the open Governor’s race as reported in a new Albuquerque Journal newspaper poll (Research & Polling, Inc.; 9/7-13; 966 NM registered voters). The winner replaces term-limited Gov. Susana Martinez (R) next year.
Earlier, Ms. Grisham’s lead over Mr. Pearce had dropped to two points, 42-40%, when Emerson College released the results of their mid-August survey. Since then two Democratic polls gave her leads of eight and ten points, and now we see a seven-point spread in this latest independent survey. After former Governor and Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson entered the US Senate race as a replacement nominee when state Lands Commissioner Aubrey Dunn decided to withdraw from the Libertarian Party ballot position he won in June, speculation began building that Republican nominee Mick Rich might drop out of the race to allow Mr. Johnson a clear shot at potentially defeating first-term Sen. Martin Heinrich (D).
Such will not be the case, however. Yesterday, the deadline passed for removing a candidate’s name from the New Mexico ballot, so the nominees are now locked for the general election. If Mr. Rich was to make a move as described, he would have needed to notify the authorities by Tuesday to begin the process of withdrawing from the race. The Majority Institute, a Democratic-affiliated group, commissioned a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll (8/2-5; 500 NM likely voters) that largely confirms another Democratic poll. According to GQR, Sen. Heinrich holds a 48-33-17% lead over state Labor Commission member Mick Rich (R) and former Governor and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson. The previous Democratic poll release came from the Global Strategies Group, conducted for the Heinrich Campaign (8/1-5; 800 NM likely voters), that found a 47-29-22% split in the same order as the GQR result.
But, the latest Emerson College survey (8/17-18; 500 NM likely voters) sees something different than the preceding Democratic data. Emerson finds Heinrich leading Johnson and Rich, 39-21-11%. It is relevant to note that the Emerson survey is the only one released after Mr. Johnson officially entered the race. Regardless of who posts in second and third position, Sen. Heinrich is first in all polling and will likely remain there. While the Johnson entry makes this race more interesting, the end result will be Sen. Heinrich winning a second term but with a lower victory percentage than first predicted. |
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