New Mexico: Confirming Data

​The Majority Institute, a Democratic-affiliated group, commissioned a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll (8/2-5; 500 NM likely voters) that largely confirms another Democratic poll.  According to GQR, Sen. Heinrich holds a 48-33-17% lead over state Labor Commission member Mick Rich (R) and former Governor and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson.  The previous Democratic poll release came from the Global Strategies Group, conducted for the Heinrich Campaign (8/1-5; 800 NM likely voters), that found a 47-29-22% split in the same order as the GQR result.
 
But, the latest Emerson College survey (8/17-18; 500 NM likely voters) sees something different than the preceding Democratic data.  Emerson finds Heinrich leading Johnson and Rich, 39-21-11%.  It is relevant to note that the Emerson survey is the only one released after Mr. Johnson officially entered the race.
 
Regardless of who posts in second and third position, Sen. Heinrich is first in all polling and will likely remain there.  While the Johnson entry makes this race more interesting, the end result will be Sen. Heinrich winning a second term but with a lower victory percentage than first predicted.