Freshman Rep. Deb Haaland (D-Albuquerque), who flirted with the idea of running for the state’s newly open US Senate seat, announced yesterday that she will seek re-election to the US House position she won last November. At this point, Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe) clearly has the inside track to the Democratic nomination and will be favored in the general election. Republicans have yet to see a major candidate come forward. Sen. Tom Udall (D) is retiring.
Now that Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe) has announced that he will run for the Senate, candidates for the open 3rd District House seat are coming forward. So far, three individuals have announced, all Democrats. Freshman state Rep. Joe Sanchez (D-Alcalde) is the only elected official who has entered the race, but others are soon expected. Businessman and former state legislative candidate Mark McDonald is now in the race, as is 2018 state Representative candidate Cameron Chick, Sr.
The Democratic primary winner will hold the inside track to winning the seat in the general election. Republicans are not expected to make a major push in this northern New Mexico district considering its long history as a Democratic stronghold. Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe) announced his run for the state’s newly open Senate race yesterday. Mr. Lujan becomes the first major candidate of either party to announce his candidacy after Sen. Tom Udall (D) made his retirement intentions public last week. Other Democrats, including Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver and freshman Rep. Deb Haaland (D-Albuquerque) are also potential candidates.
The Republican side has been relatively quiet, but former Gov. Susana Martinez and ex-Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry would certainly be formidable statewide candidates, as would former Congressman Steve Pearce who is currently the New Mexico Republican Party chairman. Democrats will be favored to hold the seat, but the contest could potentially turn competitive. Sources indicate that Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe) will announce his run for the state’s newly open Senate race as early as today. But, many believed that Attorney General Hector Balderas (D) was also a sure entry and he declared late last week that he won’t run for the Senate. So, we will see what happens either today or within the next few days.
In a political week dominated by Sen. Tom Udall’s (D) unexpected announcement that he will retire after his current term ends, another surprise happened yesterday. Attorney General Hector Balderas (D) appeared set to announce his intention to run for the open Senate seat in a video message scheduled for release, yesterday. Instead, Mr. Balderas announced that he will not run, choosing to remain in his current position.
Early next week, Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe/Santa Fe) is expected to become the first candidate to formally declare for the open seat. Without Mr. Balderas in the race, Rep. Lujan appears to be the early favorite for the Democratic nomination and the seat itself. But, with well over a year before the June Democratic primary, this campaign is just beginning. Two-term Democratic Sen. Tom Udall (D) yesterday announced via video message from his home that he will not seek a third term next year but promises to remain active in the political process. The move is unforeseen as Sen. Udall looked to be a lock for re-election. Democrats will be favored to hold the seat, but a Republican making this open contest competitive is certainly within the realm of possibility.
An early 2020 political survey finds 2018 GOP congressional nominee Yvette Herrell (R) jumping out to a large 51-38% lead over freshman Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D-Las Cruces). The Strategy Group Company conducted the poll (1/23-27; 1,070 NM-2 likely voters; 537 likely Republican primary voters), but the general election result appears unrealistic. Having access only to the ballot test and not the underlying numbers, it is difficult to believe a freshman House member who had just defeated Ms. Herrell 51-49% in November would already be falling 13 percentage points behind.
In the Republican primary, Ms. Herrell, an ex-state Representative, leads former Secretary of State candidate Gavin Clarkson, energy company executive Claire Chase, and former Fresno, CA City Councilman Chris Mathys, 50-7-4-2%. Since Ms. Herrell is the most recent former Republican nominee in this district, her being this far ahead in the GOP primary is believable. New Mexico’s 2nd District will again be a battleground race in 2020. Chris Mathys, a former Republican member of the Fresno (CA) City Council, announced that he will run in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District and challenge freshman Rep. Xochitl Torres-Small (D-Las Cruces). Mr. Mathys will not likely be the strongest Republican coming forward, however. Already, former state Rep. Yvette Harrell (R-Alamogordo), who lost to Rep. Torres-Small by less than two percentage points last November, is sending strong signals that she plans to run again.
Also mentioned is former US Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs), who relinquished the congressional seat to run unsuccessfully for US Senate. Now the New Mexico Republican Party state chairman, Mr. Pearce, who previously left the House seat to run a losing statewide campaign only to return to Congress, has given no indication that he will again attempt to regain his former political post. Dave Giles, a former congressional candidate in 2016 and ’18, apparently will enter the next Arizona election campaign, too. Even though Rep-Elect Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix) is not yet even sworn into office after his 61-39% victory over Dr. Steve Ferrara (R) in the Phoenix-anchored 9th District, Mr. Giles is announcing that he will again enter the next GOP primary field. Regardless of who the Republicans nominate, Mr. Stanton will begin his first re-election race as a prohibitive favorite.
Moving east, New Mexico state Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-Alamogordo) looks to be taking steps to seek a re-match against the woman who defeated her 51-49% in November, attorney and now Rep-Elect Xochitl Torres-Small (D). Though Ms. Herrell is still considering filing a lawsuit over potential voting irregularities in Dona Ana County, she is “not ruling out” another congressional run in 2020. Outgoing Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs), who just lost the Governor’s race but was subsequently elected as the New Mexico Republican Party chairman, is also not closing the door on a second comeback for the seat he vacated to run statewide in both 2008 and 2018. Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs) just lost the Governor’s race in November, but he has already made a political comeback of sorts. Over the weekend he was elected as chairman of the New Mexico Republican Party and will attempt to rebuild the party, which now has no GOP officials either in statewide or federal office.
Mr. Pearce has also not ruled out attempting to re-gain his House seat after Democratic attorney Xochitl Torres-Small converted the seat in the general election. As party chairman, however, it may be difficult for him to devote time to his new responsibilities and simultaneously prepare for another congressional campaign against a freshman Democratic member. After Mr. Pearce ran for US Senate in 2008 and gave up the House seat he originally won in 2002, he returned in 2010 to re-capture the district from the freshman Democratic incumbent who replaced him. The question remains open as to whether he will attempt to make the same move in 2020. |
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