A week after former Governor and Libertarian Party presidential nominee agreed to run for the New Mexico Senate seat on the minor party ticket, a new poll already shows him bypassing the Republican nominee and into second place.
According to Emerson College Polling (8/17-18; 500 NM registered voters), Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) would have 39% support in the three-way race, Mr. Johnson is second with 21%, and Republican nominee Mick Rich, a state Labor Commission member, drops to third place with just 11% backing. From an internal GBA Strategies poll (8/1-5; 800 NM likely voters) that Sen. Heinrich released just as Mr. Johnson was considering running, the incumbent held a 47-29-22% advantage with Mr. Rich in second position. Therefore, while Mr. Johnson’s support seems to remain constant in the two polls, both Sen. Heinrich and Mr. Rich experienced significant slippage. Therefore, this budding race will likely attract further political news attention. The Emerson College Polling group who surveyed the New Mexico Senate race (see New Mexico Senate above) also tested the open Governor’s race. In a contest featuring two-thirds of the congressional delegation fighting to replace retiring Gov. Susana Martinez (R), Albuquerque Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham is holding only a small 42-40% edge over Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs). Though the contest has, heretofore, been rated as Lean Democratic, further polling such as this could move the race quickly into the toss-up column.
Despite being faced with long shot odds even though he says he’s “in to win,” former New Mexico Governor and Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson agreed to become the latter party’s US Senate nominee. He replaces state Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn who withdrew from the race. Mr. Johnson’s entry clearly makes this race more interesting, though Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) remains the favorite to secure a convincing re-election victory. State Labor Commission member Mick Rich is the Republican nominee, but he is so far failing to move the needle against Sen. Heinrich.
Just days after the New Mexico Libertarian Party officially asked former Republican Governor and Libertarian Party presidential candidate Gary Johnson to assume the party’s US Senate nomination after the man who won the June 5th primary, Aubrey Dunn, withdrew, Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) released his internal polling numbers. Mr. Johnson says he is considering whether to accept and may take several days before rendering a decision.
Seeing Johnson’s potential move, Sen. Heinrich quickly released his GBA Strategies survey (8/1-5; 800 NM likely voters) that finds the former Governor entering the race would virtually seal the incumbent’s re-election. According to the poll results, Sen. Heinrich would register 47% support if Republican Mick Rich and Mr. Johnson were both on the ballot opposing him. In this configuration, Rich would score 29%, and Johnson 22%. Therefore, even though Sen. Heinrich would likely drop below 50%, the split vote would make him a lock for re-election. As an illustration, if Heinrich and Johnson were in a one-on-one match, which won’t happen, the Senator would lead the former Governor, 50-38%. Sen. Heinrich’s job approval ratio is 53:33% positive to negative. The New Mexico Libertarian Party has voted to award its US Senate nomination to former Governor and presidential candidate Gary Johnson after Aubrey Dunn, who won the primary election on June 5th, decided to end his campaign. If Mr. Johnson decides to accept, he would face Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) and state Labor Commissioner Mick Rich (R) in the general election. For his part, the former Governor and national candidate says he is considering his options.
Survey USA went into the field in the Land of Enchantment (6/19-23; 553 NM likely voters) and found US Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque) leading her congressional colleague, US Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs), by a 51-38% margin.
Ms. Grisham leads across the board, but there was a big difference among those who are registered with a certain party but answered differently when asked about political party affiliation. Among those registered as Decline to State, for example, Ms. Grisham scored a ten-point advantage, 42-32%. But looking at the respondents who claim to affiliate with the Independents, the two candidates were tied at 36% support. Four key issue areas broke almost evenly when the pollsters asked the New Mexico respondents about points of greatest concern. The sample group divided fairly evenly among Education (26%), Immigration (21%), Jobs (19%), and Crime (17%). Earlier in June (6/15-16; 1,199 NM registered voters), the Carroll Strategies organization polled the state and found Ms. Grisham’s lead to be a similar 51-42%. As Tuesday’s primary fast approaches, the Democratic field in the open 1st District is becoming better defined at the eleventh hour. With incumbent Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque) departing the House to run for Governor – she has a big lead in the statewide Democratic primary – the eventual Democratic nominee will become the heavy favorite to win the seat in November. Yesterday, Albuquerque City Councilman Pat Davis, who at one time was viewed as a major candidate, decided to suspend his campaign and endorse former state Democratic chair, 2014 Lt. Governor nominee, and Tribal Administrator Deb Haaland. She is battling retired law professor Antoinette Sedillo Lopez and former US Attorney Damon Martinez in addition to two others. Though Mr. Davis has withdrawn from active campaigning, his name will remain on Tuesday’s ballot.
--Jim Ellis A new Lake Research Partners survey (5/13-14; 390 NM-1 registered voters by Interactive Voice Response system) finds almost a four-way tie for the open Democratic nomination. Retired law professor Antoinette Sedillo Lopez has a slight 25-23-20% lead over former US Attorney Damon Martinez and ex-New Mexico Democratic Party chairman Deb Haaland. The results mean the race is a virtual three-way tie at this point, just three weeks from the state’s June 5th primary election. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque) is vacating the House seat to run for Governor. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a heavy favorite to hold the seat in November.
--Jim Ellis The New Mexico Democratic Party held its qualifying and endorsing convention during the past weekend. Candidates needed to record a minimum 20% of the delegate vote to qualify for the primary ballot. They also have the option of qualifying by signature petition, and can do so even if they fall short in the pre-primary convention.
In the two open House races, the Democratic delegates advanced former New Mexico Democratic Party chair Deb Haaland and retired law professor Antoinette Sedillo Lopez into the primary election. Ms. Haaland led the voting, 35-25%. Four other Democrats have announced their candidacies, including former US Attorney Damon Martinez, who has more on-hand funds than any candidate ($323,000), and Albuquerque City Councilor Pat Davis, but neither secured enough delegate support to automatically advance. It is unclear how many of the non-qualifiers will attempt to gather petition signatures. Incumbent Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque) is running for Governor, and easily scored the first position in the statewide convention with 67% delegate support. In the open 2nd District, attorney Xochitl Torres Small placed first with 65% of the delegate vote. The second qualifier is college instructor Madeline Hildebrandt. The result is unsurprising because these two candidates are the only Democrats who filed. The Republican convention, held several weeks ago endorsed state Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-Alamogordo). Here, GOP Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs) is vacating the congressional seat to run for Governor. --Jim Ellis The open 2nd District (Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs) running for Governor) now has an official party endorsed candidate. Republicans met in convention and awarded the New Mexico Republican Party primary endorsement to state Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-Alamogordo). The move was a bit of a surprise because the convention delegates eschewed their former state chairman, Marty Newman. Rep. Herrell received a whopping 69% of the GOP delegates’ support.
New Mexico’s 2nd District occupies the state’s southern sector. Rep. Pearce was initially elected in 2002, but left in 2008 to run unsuccessfully for US Senate. He returned in 2010 to oust Democrat Harry Teague (D-Hobbs), who had succeeded him. The 2nd supported President Trump with a 50-40% margin. Candidate filing closed on February 6th, which yielded only two Democrats declaring themselves, surprising for an open seat. College professor Madeline Hildebrandt and attorney Xochitl Torres-Small will square off for the party nomination. --Jim Ellis |
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