Gov. Doug Burgum: To Declare Next Week: In what will be a long shot presidential candidacy, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is reportedly going to announce his first national campaign next week. While he won’t likely be a factor in the national scope of the campaign, he could do better than expected in Iowa, still the first state on the Republican calendar.
Historically, the Iowa voter has preferred Midwestern candidates. With Gov. Burgum coming from the business community and managing an agricultural state, such a combination could give him a basis to attract a reasonable number of votes. His bump, should it occur, won’t likely last long, but the Iowa Caucuses are a place where the seeds could be sown for Gov. Burgum to become a surprise candidate. Gov. Ron DeSantis: Set to Announce: Reports nationally and coming from Florida suggest that Gov. Ron DeSantis will formally announce his presidential campaign next week. His chief objective will be to make the race a two-way contest between he and former President Donald Trump. Another big test will be to exceed expectations in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, places that require the personal touch and strong ground operations. It is unclear just how strong the DeSantis campaign will be in the organization aspect of the campaign, but the Governor’s campaign could be short lived if he fails to perform well in the early states. Sen. Tim Scott: Yet Another Coming Forward: The third potential presidential candidate apparently preparing to formally declare next week is South Carolina Senator Tim Scott. It is very difficult to see a path for Sen. Scott to emerge as a major contender because what should be the source of strength, the fact that he comes from the key early primary state of South Carolina, is diminished because former Governor Nikki Haley is also in the race. Therefore, the two will see their home state bases weaken not only with some voters peeling off to support both former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, but they will be losing other South Carolina votes to each other. In looking at the big picture, the higher the number of second tier candidates in the Republican presidential race, the stronger former President Trump will become. Typically, a crowded field favors the contender who has the strongest political base. In this case, such candidate is clearly Donald Trump. Michigan: State School Board President Files Senate Committee: As has been expected for some time, Michigan Board of Education President Pamela Pugh (D) yesterday filed a US Senate committee with the Federal Election Commission. Potentially, we could see three African American candidates in the open Senate Democratic primary. Ms. Pugh would join Deputy Director of the state Department of Transportation and ex-state Representative Leslie Love, who has filed an exploratory committee, and potentially actor Hill Harper.
If all three eventually enter the race, the beneficiary would be US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), who is viewed as the early favorite to win the seat. If the state’s substantial black vote is split three ways, it is probable that Rep. Slotkin’s hand would be strengthened even further. It remains to be seen exactly who will formally enter the open race. Incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is not seeking a fourth term. Nevada: Republicans’ Recruit Target: Disabled American veteran Sam Brown, who challenged former Attorney General Adam Laxalt for the 2022 Republican Senate nomination and raised over $4.3 million before losing the primary election, is apparently high on the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s (NRSC) recruit list, according to reports. Nevada, where Republicans won three of seven statewide races last November including unseating Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak, is likely to be in the toss-up category for 2024. Incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) is seeking re-election for a second term.
Colorado Springs: New Mayor Elected: Yemi Mobolade, the Independent candidate who was the city’s Small Business Development Administrator and a native of Nigeria, easily won the Colorado Springs mayoral runoff to succeed term-limited Mayor John Suthers (R). Mr. Mobolade’s victory margin was 57-43%. He defeated former Secretary of State Wayne Williams (R).
Mr. Mobolade is an interesting candidate in that he grew up in a socialist country but emphasized business, community and leadership development, entrepreneurship, and ministry in his successful mayoral campaign. Jacksonville: Former News Anchor Elected: In a victory for Democrats on Tuesday night, converting a mayor’s office that had resided in Republican hands, former local news anchor Donna Deegan scored a 52-48% victory over Chamber of Commerce CEO Daniel Davis (R). The media analysts tab the race as an upset since the Republicans held the Mayor’s office for the past eight years in the person of term-limited incumbent Lenny Curry, but Democrats considerably outnumber Republicans in voter registration within the city despite the latter party now having a 400,000+ person advantage statewide. Philadelphia: Race Not as Close as Predicted: In the open Philadelphia Mayor’s race, a contest that polling consistently showed as many as five candidates had a chance to win the Democratic primary, the final result proved decisive. Former Philadelphia City Councilwoman Cherelle Parker captured the party nomination in rather easy fashion, a 33-23-22-11-9% margin over former City Controller Rebecca Rhynhart, ex-City Councilmember Helen Gym, former City Councilman Allan Domb, and businessman Jeff Brown. All of the candidates are “formers” because Philadelphia has a resign-to-run ordinance in effect for city officials. Ms. Parker campaigned as a centrist who said she wants to "stop the sense of lawlessness that is plaguing our city.” She pushed the themes of increasing law enforcement and cracking down on the city’s rapidly rising crime rate. Likely as a result, she attracted much of the Philadelphia political establishment’s support. Term-limited Mayor Jim Kenney (D), while not endorsing anyone in the race, said he cast his own ballot for Ms. Parker. Unfortunately, Ms. Parker was not at her victory party because she suffered what was termed a “dental emergency,” and was receiving treatment at the University of Pennsylvania Medical Center. The candidate attracting the most support from the vocal progressive left movement, including endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) was Ms. Gym, but she fared poorly in the overall result. Before winning her City Council election in 2015, Ms. Parker served five terms in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. She now advances to the general election to face former at-large City Councilman David Oh, who was unopposed for the Republican nomination. In a city with a 7:1 Democratic majority, Ms. Parker will be a heavy favorite, but Mr. Oh, who has won three citywide elections, will bring forth a credible campaign. Mike Pence: Super PAC Filed: In a major step toward former Vice President Mike Pence entering the race to compete against the man he served as President, the Committed to America Super PAC was just filed with the Federal Election Commission as a vehicle to promote Mr. Pence’s impending presidential campaign. Whether or not he can advance into the top tier is uncertain at the moment, but his entry into the race has been anticipated for months.
CA-41: Candidate Files for Re-Match with Rep. Calvert: Former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (D), who held veteran California Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) to a 52-48% re-election victory last November, announced yesterday that he will return for a re-match. The move had been anticipated, but Mr. Rollins presence has not stopped other Democrats from entering the race. Already filed as official candidates are San Jacinto City Councilman and pastor Brian Hawkins and Lake Elsinore City Councilman Tim Sheridan.
All contenders, including Rep. Calvert, will appear together on the 2023 all-party jungle primary ballot during the March 5th Super Tuesday vote. With a split Democratic vote, Rep. Calvert will easily place first, meaning the fight will be for second place, the only other position that guarantees advancement into the general election. Mr. Rollins clearly begins as the favorite among the Democrats. The current 41st District, which is 26% new territory when compared with Rep. Calvert’s previous 42nd CD, is marginally Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+7. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 51.9R – 46.6D. Former President Trump carried the seat with a bare 49.7 - 48.6% victory margin. MI-10: Rep. James Draws Familiar Challenger: Carl Marlinga (D), the former judge and local prosecutor who held freshman Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) to a victory margin of less than one percentage point last year, announced yesterday that he will return for another run. Mr. Marlinga will have to navigate through a Democratic primary, however, since three other Democrats, former 9th District congressional nominee Brian Jaye, and two ex-state House nominees, Emily Busch and Diane Young, are already in the race. MI-10, covering parts of Macomb and Oakland Counties, is one of 21 of the 435 congressional districts where the FiveThirtyEight data organization and Dave’s Redistricting App disagree over which party has the statistical advantage. FiveThirtyEight rates the seat R+6, while Dave’s App sees a 49.5D – 47.9R partisan swing. Former President Donald Trump carried the seat with a bare 49.8 - 48.8% victory margin. Kentucky: Cameron Wins Easily: Blue Grass State Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who former President Donald Trump endorsed last year, easily won the Republican gubernatorial nomination with 48% of the vote over 11 opponents. He will now face Gov. Andy Beshear who was renominated in the Democratic primary with 91% voter preference.
Polling suggested a much closer finish, and that former UN Ambassador Kelly Craft, who outspent Mr. Cameron by a 10:1 margin, would secure second place. She fell to third in the final vote, however, with just 17% support. Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles, who began the race buried in the second tier, was the candidate who gained the most momentum against Mr. Cameron. He rose to second place recording 22 percent. Curiously, on Election eve, even though the state’s three-day early voting period had closed, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis issued an endorsement for Ms. Craft. Considering that polling was showing a downward trend for Ms. Craft, Gov. DeSantis still issued the late endorsement ostensibly to position himself opposite of Mr. Trump. Therefore, it’s difficult to see what he gained by coming in late to back a candidate who was very likely to lose. Hawaii: Gabbard Dispels Senate Poll: The Hawaii News Network is reporting that a Survey Monkey text poll is being conducted in the state pitting former US Congresswoman and presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard against Sen. Mazie Hirono (D). Ms. Gabbard was quick to dispel the possibility of her running for the Senate, saying she is not associated with the poll and has “no plans to run for the Senate.” The 2024 Senate election is rated as “Safe” for Sen. Hirono.
Maryland: Olszewski Won’t Run: Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski (D) announced at a news event with Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) that he will not become a US Senate candidate next year and is endorsing the latter woman. At this point, Ms. Alsobrooks, US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), and Montgomery County Executive Will Jawando are the announced open seat Democratic candidates. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park) is saying “it’s a toss-up” as to whether he will enter the Senate contest, but pledges to decide by the end of this month. Sen. Ben Cardin (D) is not seeking a fourth term and will retire from politics at the end of the current Congress. This means the Democratic primary will decide his successor in a state where Republicans have little chance to win a statewide federal race. The Democratic contest already is becoming highly competitive and will continue for a year. Voters will make their decision in the May 14, 2024, nomination election. NY-18: Statewide Nominee Considers House Race: Retired New York City police officer Alison Esposito (R), who was Rep. Lee Zeldin’s 2022 running mate in the Governor’s race, said she is considering launching a bid against Rep. Pat Ryan (D-Gardiner) in the Hudson Valley’s 18th District. In 2022, Rep. Ryan won a tight 49.6 – 48.3% victory over then-Assemblyman Colin Schmitt (R), who received strong reviews as a candidate.
The 18th, which contains parts of Dutchess, Orange, and Ulster Counties, will be a seat the Republicans contest and it remains to be seen if Ms. Esposito, Mr. Schmitt, or another individual becomes the ultimate party nominee. At this point, there is no indication that Mr. Schmitt is preparing for another congressional run. South Carolina: SCOTUS to Hear Redistricting Case: The US Supreme Court announced yesterday that the justices will hear the Alexander v. South Carolina State Conference of the NAACP case in the Fall term. Earlier, a three-judge panel declared that the state’s 1st District, the Charleston anchored seat that Rep. Nancy Mace (R) represents, as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, and now the high court will hear arguments from both sides. The move is interesting since the justices are currently preparing a ruling on the Alabama racial gerrymandering case that is thought to be the vehicle for a landmark ruling. SCOTUS hearing the South Carolina case makes the coming Alabama ruling even more curious. Kentucky: AG Cameron Leads Closing Poll: Today is primary Election Day in Kentucky, and a closing Emerson College poll (5/10-12; 500 KY likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) shows Attorney General Daniel Cameron pulling away in his quest for the Republican gubernatorial nomination despite being badly outspent in the campaign.
According to the Emerson results, Mr. Cameron is staked to a 33-18-13-10% advantage over former UN Ambassador Kelly Craft, who has been the beneficiary of what could be $10 million from internal and external sources, Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles, and disbarred attorney Eric Deters. All other candidates are in single digits. The spread is much greater than detected in Emerson’s April poll. Gains were recorded for Cameron and Deters, while Ms. Craft dropped six points, and Mr. Quarles remains stagnant. The winner will face Gov. Andy Beshear (D) in the general election. The Governor faces only minor opposition in tonight’s Democratic primary. |
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