President – 5/19/23

Gov. Doug Burgum:  To Declare Next Week:   In what will be a long shot presidential candidacy, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is reportedly going to announce his first national campaign next week.  While he won’t likely be a factor in the national scope of the campaign, he could do better than expected in Iowa, still the first state on the Republican calendar. 
Historically, the Iowa voter has preferred Midwestern candidates.  With Gov. Burgum coming from the business community and managing an agricultural state, such a combination could give him a basis to attract a reasonable number of votes.  His bump, should it occur, won’t likely last long, but the Iowa Caucuses are a place where the seeds could be sown for Gov. Burgum to become a surprise candidate.
Gov. Ron DeSantis:  Set to Announce:  Reports nationally and coming from Florida suggest that Gov. Ron DeSantis will formally announce his presidential campaign next week.  His chief objective will be to make the race a two-way contest between he and former President Donald Trump.  Another big test will be to exceed expectations in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, places that require the personal touch and strong ground operations.  It is unclear just how strong the DeSantis campaign will be in the organization aspect of the campaign, but the Governor’s campaign could be short lived if he fails to perform well in the early states.
Sen. Tim Scott:  Yet Another Coming Forward:   The third potential presidential candidate apparently preparing to formally declare next week is South Carolina Senator Tim Scott.  It is very difficult to see a path for Sen. Scott to emerge as a major contender because what should be the source of strength, the fact that he comes from the key early primary state of South Carolina, is diminished because former Governor Nikki Haley is also in the race.  Therefore, the two will see their home state bases weaken not only with some voters peeling off to support both former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, but they will be losing other South Carolina votes to each other.
In looking at the big picture, the higher the number of second tier candidates in the Republican presidential race, the stronger former President Trump will become.  Typically, a crowded field favors the contender who has the strongest political base.  In this case, such candidate is clearly Donald Trump.