NJ-7: No Re-Match: New Jersey’s 7th District is a politically marginal seat anchored in Union County, but the voters there will not see the third version of a Tom Kean, Jr – Tom Malinowski campaign. In 2018, Mr. Malinowski converted the seat for the Democrats, defeating five-term GOP incumbent Leonard Lance. The Democratic Congressman then won a close re-election race against Republican Tom Kean. The 2022 re-match went Mr. Kean’s way, and yesterday, Mr. Malinowski announced that he will not return for a rubber match.
The 7th District became more Republican in redistricting but is still competitive. Rep. Kean will definitely face a strong Democratic opponent in 2024, but it will not be Mr. Malinowski. State Senate President Nick Scutari (D-Linden) and Assembly Deputy Majority Leader Roy Freiman (D-Hillsborough) are two potential Democratic candidates. Gov. Ron DeSantis: Announces Today: Multiple reports are indicating that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will announce his long-awaited presidential campaign today in a Twitter interview with Elon Musk.
Thus, the slow developing national campaign is now getting underway. In addition to the DeSantis announcement, ex-Vice President Mike Pence, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie are all expected to soon formally enter the race, joining former President Donald Trump, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. The first vote will be in the Iowa Caucuses currently scheduled for February 5, 2024. New Hampshire: Movement for Sununu: The National Research, Inc. polling firm, surveying for the American Greatness organization, tested the New Hampshire Republican electorate and found the state’s Governor, Chris Sununu (R), who will likely soon enter the presidential contest, gaining ground. He will obviously need to score well before his home electorate if he is to become a viable national contender. According to the NR data (5/15/17; 500 NH likely Republican presidential primary voters), former President Donald Trump continues to lead the group of candidates with 39% support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is second with 18%, with Gov. Sununu now close behind at 17%. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy surprisingly rose to the top of the second tier with 6%. No other candidate or potential contender even broke the 3% threshold. Nevada: Another Takes Pass: April Becker, the Republican congressional nominee who held Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) to a 52-48% re-election victory last November and was reported to be considering entering the 2024 US Senate race, has made a decision about her political future. Instead of running for the Senate next year, she will launch a campaign for the Clark County Commission. At this point, it appears that disabled American veteran Sam Brown could become the leading GOP Senate candidate.
Utah: Local GOP Mayor to Challenge Sen. Romney: Riverton Mayor Trent Skaggs (R) announced through a video presentation yesterday that he will challenge Sen. Mitt Romney in the impending GOP primary. It is likely that Mr. Skaggs will qualify through the convention process, while Sen. Romney will be forced into the signature petition qualification route. Earlier, state House Speaker Brad Wilson had filed a US Senate exploratory committee. Former US Representative and Fox News contributor Jason Chaffetz is also said to be weighing his potential in a race against Sen. Romney. In any event, having to fight a primary opponent is a likelihood for the incumbent Senator and Republican former presidential nominee. Kentucky: Poll Shows Tight Race: Just after last week’s Kentucky Republican primary nominated Attorney General Daniel Cameron to challenge Gov. Andy Beshear (D), the co/efficient GOP polling firm, for the Cameron campaign, went into the field. The survey (5/18-19; 987 KY likely 2023 general election voters) sees Gov. Beshear holding only a two-point, 45-43%, edge over AG Cameron.
The closeness of this ballot test result is surprising considering Gov. Beshear’s job approval rating index is very favorable. Expect this race to be in competitive mode all the way through the November election. Delaware: Sen. Tom Carper (D) will Retire: Delaware Senator Tom Carper (D) announced yesterday that he will conclude his long political career at the end of this Congress. Doing so means he will have served in elective office for 48 consecutive years when his current term ends.
Sen. Carper was first elected state Treasurer in 1976, then to the US House in 1982, Governor in 1992, and the US Senate in 2000. During yesterday’s retirement announcement, he encouraged At-Large US Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington), one of his former congressional staff members, to run for the Senate seat. Mr. Carper becomes the fifth Senator to forego re-election in 2024 and fourth Democrat. He joins Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Mike Braun (R-IN), Ben Cardin (D-MD), and Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) in the group who are voluntarily ending their Washington careers. All are retiring from politics with the exception of Senator Braun who is running for Governor of Indiana. It remains to be seen if Rep. Blunt Rochester runs for the Senate – it is presumed she will – but another possibility is outgoing Gov. John Carney (D) who is ineligible to seek a third term in 2024. Mr. Carney, himself a former Congressman, could launch a primary challenge for the Senate, which could send Rep. Blunt Rochester into the open Governor’s contest. The latter move is not likely, however, since the Congresswoman could have easily hopped into what was known to be an open race long before Sen. Carper’s announcement. AZ-1: Another Democrat to Challenge GOP Rep. David Schweikert: Arizona Rep. David Schweikert’s (R-Fountain Hills) close one-point re-election victory over Democratic newcomer Jevin Hodge last November has led to several different Democrats vying for the right to challenge the veteran GOP Congressman in the next election. The Democratic field is enlarged because Mr. Hodge has decided not to return for a re-match. The new 1st District, that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+7, is six points less Republican than Rep. Schweikert’s previous 6th CD.
Joining the group with yesterday’s announcement is former television news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, the wife of the late Attorney General Grant Woods who was originally elected as a Republican but switched to the Democratic Party. Previously announced are state Representative and physician Amish Shah (D-Phoenix), former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andrei Cherni, ex-Arizona Red Cross CEO Kurt Kroemer, orthodontist Andrew Horne, and educator and frequent candidate W. John Williamson. Expect this race to again evolve into a national competitive congressional campaign after the Democratic nomination is decided in the August 6, 2024, primary election. NY-3: Top Republican Says “Not Interested”: As the saga of Congressman George Santos (R-Long Island) continues, it has been no secret that Long Island Republican Party leaders were looking to state Sen. Jack Martins (R-Mineola) as a potential replacement congressional nominee. While Sen. Martins indicated yesterday that he “…hopes Santos will resign,” he further stated that he is “not at all interested” in running for the seat regardless of whether Santos is in the congressional race or not. Therefore, the GOP brain trust may have to begin again to identify a potential candidate either in an open seat situation or to challenge a beleaguered Rep. Santos in the next Republican primary. North Carolina: Ex-Rep. Walker Declares for Governor: Former three-term US Representative Mark Walker (R), who found himself without a district under the state Supreme Court-drawn map in 2020 and then ran an ill-fated 2022 US Senate campaign (losing the Republican primary to now-Sen. Ted Budd and only attracting 9.2% of the vote), yesterday announced his gubernatorial candidacy.
Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is ineligible to seek a third term, so the position will be open in the 2024 election. So far, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) has a wide early lead for the party nomination and even enjoys a small polling edge over his likely Democratic gubernatorial counterpart, Attorney General Josh Stein. Mr. Walker argues that Lt. Gov. Robinson will be a poor general election candidate, thus potentially leading the party to a big loss in the November 2024 vote: hence, his reasoning for entering the Governor’s race. North Carolina promises to host one of the most competitive gubernatorial campaigns on the 2024 national election card. Sen. Tim Scott: Formally Announces: As predicted last week, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott on Saturday declared his presidential candidacy. At this point, former President Donald Trump, former UN Ambassador and ex-South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, retired Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and now Sen. Scott are the officially announced candidates.
As we have previously said, the higher the number of second tier candidates in the Republican presidential race, the stronger former President Trump will become. Typically, a crowded field favors the contender who has the strongest political base. In this case, such candidate is clearly Donald Trump. Gov. Chris Sununu: Moving Toward Running: New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu said at the end of last week that he will make a formal announcement about his potential presidential candidacy by the end of this month. Reading the political tea leaves suggests that he will enter the race but foregoes a fifth run for Governor later in the cycle presuming he fails to win the Republican presidential nomination. Polls suggest that he will be a factor in the New Hampshire primary, which is still the first such state on the Republican calendar. A good showing in the Granite State could provide him some momentum for other places particularly in the New England region. Looking at the bigger picture, another entry again makes the GOP race easier for former President Donald Trump. Maryland: New Democrat Comes Forth: Joining the Maryland open US Senate Democratic primary race is telecom company executive and Gulf War veteran Juan Dominguez. He announced his candidacy at the end of last week. It is doubtful he will be a top tier contender since he must battle US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, and Montgomery County Councilman Will Jawando at a minimum. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park) and former Rep. John Delaney (D) are potential candidates.
The May 14, 2024, plurality Democratic primary winner is a lock to succeed retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D) in November. Tennessee: Potential Democratic Challenger: Tennessee state Representative Gloria Johnson (D-Knoxville), who was one vote away from being expelled from the House for her support of the gun control insurrection at the state Capitol earlier this year, said over the weekend that she is considering entering the US Senate race to challenge incumbent Republican Marsha Blackburn. Sen. Blackburn is poised for re-election and will be very difficult to unseat in a state that Donald Trump carried 61-37% in 2020. Sen. Blackburn defeated former Governor Phil Bredesen (D), 55-44%, to initially win her seat in 2018. NY-3: In and Out: As fast as New York television reporter Darius Radzius (D) entered the congressional race with the hope of challenging embattled freshman Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) last week, he has just as quickly closed his committee with the Federal Election Commission and withdrawn his candidacy “for personal reasons.”
Former state Senator Anna Kaplan and Nassau County Legislator Josh Lafazan are the two most prominent Democrats to so far come forward. Former US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D), who left the seat in 2022 to run a long shot gubernatorial campaign, says he is considering launching a comeback congressional race. Republicans are likely to find a new candidate, possibly in the person of state Sen. Jack Martins (R-Mineola), should Rep. Santos be convicted in court, expelled from the House, or defeated in a Republican primary. |
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