House – 5/17/23

CA-41:  Candidate Files for Re-Match with Rep. Calvert:   Former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (D), who held veteran California Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) to a 52-48% re-election victory last November, announced yesterday that he will return for a re-match.  The move had been anticipated, but Mr. Rollins presence has not stopped other Democrats from entering the race.  Already filed as official candidates are San Jacinto City Councilman and pastor Brian Hawkins and Lake Elsinore City Councilman Tim Sheridan. 
 
All contenders, including Rep. Calvert, will appear together on the 2023 all-party jungle primary ballot during the March 5th Super Tuesday vote.  With a split Democratic vote, Rep. Calvert will easily place first, meaning the fight will be for second place, the only other position that guarantees advancement into the general election.  Mr. Rollins clearly begins as the favorite among the Democrats. 
 
The current 41st District, which is 26% new territory when compared with Rep. Calvert’s previous 42nd CD, is marginally Republican.  The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+7.  Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 51.9R – 46.6D.  Former President Trump carried the seat with a bare 49.7 - 48.6% victory margin.​

MI-10:  Rep. James Draws Familiar Challenger:   Carl Marlinga (D), the former judge and local prosecutor who held freshman Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) to a victory margin of less than one percentage point last year, announced yesterday that he will return for another run.  Mr. Marlinga will have to navigate through a Democratic primary, however, since three other Democrats, former 9th District congressional nominee Brian Jaye, and two ex-state House nominees, Emily Busch and Diane Young, are already in the race. 

MI-10, covering parts of Macomb and Oakland Counties, is one of 21 of the 435 congressional districts where the FiveThirtyEight data organization and Dave’s Redistricting App disagree over which party has the statistical advantage.  FiveThirtyEight rates the seat R+6, while Dave’s App sees a 49.5D – 47.9R partisan swing.  Former President Donald Trump carried the seat with a bare 49.8 - 48.8% victory margin.