Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin to Seek Third Term: As expected, Badger State Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) announced yesterday that she will seek a third term next year. Ms. Baldwin was first elected to the Senate in 2012 but has been in elected public office consecutively since 1985. Prior to winning her current position, Ms. Baldwin served in the US House, the Wisconsin state Assembly, the Dane County Board of Supervisors, and the Madison Common Council.
No Republican has formally come forward, but several individuals are considering the race. Unless the congressional map is redrawn, it is doubtful any member of the US House delegation will run. Former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch is a potential candidate as is businessman Scott Mayer. While Sen. Baldwin will be favored for re-election, the 2024 Senate race could well become highly competitive. AZ-6: Re-Match Brewing: We are seeing several re-matches take place in 2024 US House races, and one in Arizona became official yesterday. Last November, Republican Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) defeated then-state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) by a 50.7 – 49.2% count, a margin of 5,232 votes. Now, Ms. Engel returns for a second chance.
Arizona’s 6th District sits in the southeast corner of the state and contains approximately half of the city of Tucson. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it as R+7, but Dave’s Redistricting App sees a closer 50.9R – 47.1D partisan lean. Count on another close finish in this desert congressional district. CA-47: Ex-Rep Harley Rouda Forced Out: Former Rep. Harley Rouda (D), who held the former 48th Congressional District for one term, had announced a comeback attempt for next year’s political contest in new District 47. Unfortunately, Mr. Rouda was involved in a falling accident in which he sustained head injuries. On the advice of his physicians, Mr. Rouda says that he will now not pursue his 2024 candidacy and instead concentrate on returning to full health status. This development means we will now almost assuredly see an open seat contest between state Sen. David Min (D-Irvine) and 2022 congressional nominee and ex-state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R). In the previous election, Mr. Baugh lost to incumbent Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) by a 51.7 - 48.3% split. Rep. Porter is leaving the House to run for the US Senate. NY-19: Another Re-Match Brewing: Continuing with re-matches, attorney Josh Riley (D), who lost 49.9 – 48.4% to now-freshman Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook), announced that he, too, will return for another campaign in 2024. The Upstate 19th District, anchored in Ulster and Dutchess Counties, is rated as R+1 from the FiveThirtyEight data organization, while Dave’s Redistricting App sees the partisan lean as a much different 52.0D – 44.6R. Democrats are already committed to targeting the Hudson Valley seats, so expect this race to transform into a national congressional campaign. MD-6: Republican Returning for Another Try: US Air Force veteran Mariela Roca, who finished third in a six-way 2022 Republican congressional primary, announced yesterday that she will again run in her western Maryland district next year. The 6th District, which the court-drawn plan made more Republican by removing a huge section of Montgomery County, appeared headed for a close finish between Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) and state Delegate Neil Parrott (R-Frederick). After the late votes were recorded, however, Rep. Trone recorded a substantial 55-45% victory, a margin of almost 25,000 votes.
In an open seat situation, however, this could become a highly competitive district. Sen. Ben Cardin (D), who will be 81 years of age before the next election, says he will decide shortly if he will seek a fourth term. This, after serving 20 years in the US House and another 20 years in the Maryland House of Delegates. Should Sen. Cardin opt to retire, Rep. Trone would be a prime prospect to jump into an open Senate race. If these events occur, then the 6th District is sure to feature competitive Democratic and Republican primaries, and a tight general election. Democratic National Committee: Chooses Chicago: For the twelfth time, the Democratic National Committee has selected Chicago to host its national convention. The 2024 gathering will be the 50th such national conclave. A total of 18 cities have held the 50 Democratic conventions, with Chicago doing so most often. Eight others have hosted more than one: Baltimore (9), New York (5), St. Louis (4), and Philadelphia (3), with two each for Cincinnati, Denver, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. Late last year, the Republicans chose Milwaukee as the site of their 2024 national convention.
President Biden: Plans to Run: In an interview with NBC’s Al Roker, President Biden confirmed that he “plans to run” for re-election, though is not yet ready to make a formal announcement. It is again surprising that the 2024 presidential race on both sides is not coming into form more quickly. With no one launching a serious Democratic primary challenge to the President, he certainly is under no pressure to formally announce his re-election candidacy anytime soon.
Donald Trump: Florida Congressional Endorsements: Former President Donald Trump continues to make inroads from Gov. Ron DeSantis’ home state of Florida. Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) announced his endorsement of former President Trump yesterday, as did his colleague, Byron Donalds (R-Naples/Ft. Myers). Previously, Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Ft. Walton Beach) and Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) had publicly announced their support of Mr. Trump. Michigan: Ex-Police Chief Craig Looking Toward Senate: In 2022, retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) had planned to enter the Michigan Governor’s race but failed to submit the required number of valid petition signatures. Now, reports are surfacing that Mr. Craig is considering entering the open US Senate race. At this point, Michigan School Board member Nikki Snyder is the only Republican current or former elected official to declare for the race. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) is the most well-known Democrat to step forward.
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is not seeking a fifth term. Democrats will be favored to retain the open Michigan seat, but another close election result is expected. Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Announces: Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) indicated his re-election plans were on hold until he received a clean bill of health from his surgeon. Earlier in the year, Sen. Casey underwent surgery to eradicate cancer in his prostate. Apparently, the Senator has received positive reports from his healthcare physicians because yesterday he announced his re-election effort. Sen. Casey, who is the son of the late former Pennsylvania Governor Bob Casey, Sr., was first elected in 2006, defeating then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R). He was re-elected in 2012 and 2018 with 54 and 56% of the vote, respectively. He will again be favored to clinch a fourth term next year. Ohio: No Labels Files Signatures: The No Labels organization is attempting to qualify for ballot position in many states with the goal of offering centrist candidates in various races, possibly including President. The entity has so far qualified for a ballot line in Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon. Yesterday, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) announced that the No Labels organization has petitioned for recognition in the Buckeye State. Mr. LaRose indicated that the signature verification process to determine if the group has met the state political party recognition requirement has begun.
Though the No Labels leadership, which includes former US Senator and 2000 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Joe Lieberman and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan as national co-chairmen, has so far indicated they are not looking to file a presidential candidate, both parties are wary that they might. In different states, No Labels could hurt each party. It is also conceivable that Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema could run for re-election on the No Labels line since the party has qualified in her state of Arizona. The Arizona Democratic Party, however, has filed a lawsuit attempting to invalidate its status claiming the No Labels organization has not completely fulfilled Arizona’s legal requirements. Arizona: Republicans May Soon Have a Candidate: Political reports in Arizona suggest that Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb (R) may announce his US Senate candidacy as early as this week. Most of the attention so far has been upon whether 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake would enter the race. She has yet to say whether another campaign is in her immediate plans.
Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) is an announced candidate, and has been leading in the most recent polling. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) appears to be preparing to seek a second term, but has not yet said whether she will run on the No Labels Party ticket after leaving the Democrats. Count upon the Arizona Senate race again becoming one of the top races in the country next year. Nevada: Rosen Raising; Republicans Deciding: Nevada political sources indicate that both former GOP US Senate candidate Sam Brown and defeated 2022 congressional nominee April Becker may both soon announce 2024 US Senate campaigns. Mr. Brown became more of a factor in the 2022 Senate primary than originally expected due to impressive fundraising, but still lost to former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt who would then lose a close general election contest to Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D). Ms. Becker lost a 52-48% decision to Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) in the 3rd Congressional District battle. Meanwhile, incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) has been hard at work on the fundraising trail. Her campaign indicates the Senator will report $2.4 million raised for the quarter ending March 31st, with more than $6 million cash-on-hand. Expect another close race here, but Sen. Rosen must be considered the favorite to win a second term. CA-27: Two Democrats Making Moves: Southern California US Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) won his most impressive victory in 2022, a 53-47% victory over former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D) in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+8, and Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the district partisan lean at 53.7D – 44.3R. With Ms. Smith now losing three times, Democrats are looking toward other options. We can again expect this to become a national congressional campaign.
Former Virgin Galactic CEO and ex-NASA chief of staff George Whitesides (D), who was the first to announce his candidacy earlier this year, is reportedly going to disclose more than $500,000 raised for the 2024 race in the March 31st Federal Election Commission quarterly disclosure report and another $500,000 self-contributed. Franky Carrillo (D), who was wrongly imprisoned for 22 years for a murder later proved that he did not commit and was then awarded a $19 million settlement from the state of California, is expected to formally launch his campaign later this month. |
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