CA-31: Preparing for Retirement? California state Senator Bob Archuleta (D-Norwalk) filed a congressional campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission during the week. This is a curious move since veteran Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk) has not announced that she is retiring. The act of filing a federal committee is not necessarily an official declaration of candidacy, but does allow the raising of federal funds.
Rep. Napolitano will be 87 years old at the time of the next election and is clearly a retirement possibility. Sen. Archuleta is now officially waiting in the wings. It is unlikely that he will launch a primary challenge against the incumbent since he would be risking his Senate seat to do so. The 31st Congressional District is heavily Hispanic and Democratic, so any primary challenge will likely result in a double Democratic general election campaign under California’s all-party jungle primary system. PA-1: Nominee Returning: Retired Army pilot Ashley Ehasz (D), who fell last November to four-term Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) by a 55-45% count, will return for a re-match, she announced yesterday. The ten-point spread was the Congressman’s strongest performance since he first began running for the seat in 2016. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the Philadelphia suburban district as EVEN. It is likely Democrats will want to find a stronger 2024 candidate, but Ms. Ehasz’s presence in the race suggests a primary contest will result if the party leadership decides to recruit a different contender. Missouri: Secretary of State Enters Open Governor Race: As expected, Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft (R), the son of former Missouri Senator and US Attorney General John Ashcroft (R), yesterday announced that he will enter the open 2024 Governor’s race. Mr. Ashcroft was first elected to his statewide post in 2016, and re-elected in 2020. He lost his first race, however, a St. Louis area state Senate campaign in 2014.
Gov. Mike Parson (R), who assumed the Governorship in June of 2018 after then-Gov. Eric Greitens (R) was forced to resign and then was elected to a full term in 2020, is ineligible to seek a second full term. Already in the open Republican primary are Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-St. Charles County), thus guaranteeing a nomination fight. No Democrat has yet declared his or her candidacy. Republicans will be favored to hold the position in the general election. Denver Mayor: Runoff Set: Last Tuesday’s open mayoral primary in Denver that featured 16 candidates attempting to succeed retiring Mayor Michael Hancock (D) who is ineligible to run for a third term, has now been officially decided. The two candidates advancing to the November runoff election are both Democrats.
The official general election contenders will be former state Senator and ex-gubernatorial candidate Mike Johnston and ex-Denver Chamber of Commerce CEO and former mayoral chief of staff Kelly Brough. Ms. Brough served as then-Mayor’s John Hickenlooper’s top aide. The latter man is now, of course, Colorado’s current junior US Senator and a former Governor and presidential candidate. A competitive general election is expected. Houston Mayor: New Candidate Emerging: Former Houston Mayoral candidate Tony Buzbee, who lost the 2019 runoff to Mayor Sylvester Turner, 55-45% after spending $12 million of his own money, may enter the 2023 campaign. Mr. Buzbee was quoted as saying he could spend $15-50 million more of his own money to win the election. His stated belief is that he is the only candidate who could defeat US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), who is now an official mayoral contender. Candidate filing does not conclude until August, so this open race still has much time to solidify. Mayor Turner is ineligible to seek a third term and is openly considering entering the 2024 Senate race against incumbent Republican Ted Cruz. West Virginia: New GOP Primary Poll Finds Gov. Justice with Big Lead: The National Public Affairs survey research firm released the results of their new West Virginia US Senate Republican primary poll. The study (3/14-17; 360 WV likely Republican primary voters and Independents likely to vote in the Republican primary; live interview & text), unsurprisingly finds Gov. Jim Justice leading Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) and US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) with a 43-21-10% count. If the race were only between Gov. Justice and Rep. Mooney, the Governor would hold a 55-24% advantage.
It is likely that Mr. Morrisey will likely opt for the open Governor’s race instead of taking on Mr. Justice in another Senate primary. In 2018, Mr. Morrisey held Sen. Joe Manchin (D) to a 50-46% re-election victory after easily winning the Republican primary. A Senate announcement from Gov. Justice is expected soon . State Polling: Trump’s Indictment Bounce: Though under indictment, former President Donald Trump sees his polling numbers continue to improve, this time in three states. His lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and others, has grown according to new surveys from Massachusetts and New Hampshire, while his deficit has closed in the Sunshine State.
Opinion Dynamics, polling for the Boston Herald newspaper (released 4/3; 475 MA likely Republican primary voters) sees Mr. Trump’s Massachusetts lead expand to 45-21-9-3% over Gov. DeSantis, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and ex-Vice President Mike Pence. In a two-way test, Trump led DeSantis, 46-32%. In New Hampshire, St. Anselm’s College conducted one of their regular Granite State surveys (3/28-30; 1,320 NH registered voters; live interview via cellphone). Here, Trump’s advantage is 42-29%, with New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu pulling 14%. The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Florida survey (3/27-30; 625 FL registered voters with a 507 over-sample of Republican voters for the GOP primary questions; live interview) sees Mr. DeSantis, with a strong GOP approval rating of 87:7% favorable to unfavorable, leading former President Trump 44-39% before the Governor’s home state electorate. MI-10: New Democrat Comes Forth: Last November freshman Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) won a very tight 49-48% election victory over former Judge and prosecuting attorney Carl Marlinga (D). He has now already drawn two opponents even though Mr. Marlinga is expected to return to seek a re-match.
Earlier in the week, former state Representative candidate Diane Young (D) announced her congressional candidacy. Previously, attorney and 2022 congressional nominee against Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Bruce), Brian Jaye (D), declared his candidacy in the adjoining 10th CD. It is already clear that regardless of how many Democrats come forward to attempt to challenge Rep. James, the 2024 Democratic nominee will almost assuredly again be Mr. Marlinga. He will once more give Rep. James a very competitive battle in the general election. NY-3: Rep. Santos Has Primary Challenge: It is a foregone conclusion that embattled freshman New York Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) is the most vulnerable House member for the coming 2024 election. While two Democrats have previously announced their candidacies, the first Republican challenger stepped forward yesterday. Afghan War veteran and former JP Morgan Vice President Kellen Curry declared himself a candidate for the Republican nomination. It is expected that we will see a crowded Republican primary form long before the June 2024 New York primary. Defeating Rep. Santos in the primary may be the only way the GOP has of potentially salvaging the seat. Chicago Mayor: Johnson Wins Close Election: Former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas was attempting to complete a worst-to-first showing from his last place finish in the 2019 Chicago Mayor’s race, but fell just under three percentage points of accomplishing his goal. The winner, with 51.4% of the runoff vote, is Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson (D), who will now succeed Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) after her defeat in the initial round of voting.
Mr. Johnson’s combined support from the Chicago Teachers Union and the black and Hispanic communities, together of which accounts for approximately 60% of the city’s population, led to his victory. Commissioner Johnson is himself a former teacher and union organizer. Wisconsin Supreme Court: Democrat Wins: Milwaukee County Circuit Court Judge Janet Prostasiewicz won a rather easy 55-45% victory last night in what many believe was a crucial election. The victory now gives the Democrats the majority on the state Supreme Court for the first time in 15 years. Abortion, again, was a major topic in the race with Prostasiewicz positioning her opponent, former defeated Supreme Court Judge Dan Kelly, as an extremist. Kelly raised little money for the race, but had major outside support. Prostasiewicz and the Democrats had a major resource advantage, and ran the campaign as if it were closer to a partisan congressional race than a judicial battle. It is probable that we will now see a redistricting lawsuit filed and the state’s 6R-2D map overturned. Ms. Prostasiewicz indicated during the campaign that she thought the congressional map was “unfair.” It appears Republicans won a state Senate special election that would give them a Super Majority within the body. This would allow them to override many of Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’ potential vetoes. With 99% of the vote counted, Republican Dan Knodl held 50.4% of the vote. AZ-1: Democrats Rebound with New Candidate: Late last week, 2022 congressional nominee Jevin Hodge (D), who held Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) to a tight 50.4 – 49.6% victory margin, announced that he would not return for a re-match. Yesterday, state Rep. Amish Shah (D-Phoenix) said that he will run.
The newly-configured 1st District electorate is voting much more Democratic than the FiveThirtyEight R+7 rating would suggest. Though Rep. Schweikert barely won, President Joe Biden, Sen. Mark Kelly (D), and Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) all carried the 1st district in their 2020 and 2022 elections, albeit by similarly slim margins. Expect AZ-1 to be a top tier Democratic conversion seat in the next election. FL-11: Rep. Webster to Face Primary Challenge: Former Florida state Rep. Anthony Sabatini (R), who finished a distant second to now-Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) in the open 7th District Republican primary last year, announced that he will challenge veteran Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) next year in the neighboring 11th District. Mr. Sabatini will be a long shot contender, but he will likely be able to attract sufficient resources to become competitive. Asa Hutchinson: Announces Candidacy: Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson (R), who has repeatedly come out in opposition to former President Donald Trump, announced that he will become a presidential candidate. Though Hutchinson would be considered a “Never Trumper,” him jumping into the race could well help the former President because even small numbers of votes deflected from whoever becomes Mr. Trump’s top opponent, likely Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, will allow the former to score a plurality victory.
No Labels Party: AZ Democrats Sue to Disqualify: The No Labels Party is attempting to qualify for the ballot in as many states as possible, and has already done so in Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon. The Arizona Democratic Party, however, has filed a lawsuit attempting to disqualify the No Labels entity under the reasoning that Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes was in error for certifying the organization because it doesn’t meet all of the legal qualifications. The ADP claims that No Labels has not filed with the Federal Election Commission nor have they disclosed their donors, both requirements for political parties under Arizona election law. The Arizona Democrats are particularly concerned about No Labels because a candidate under this banner could potentially draw Democratic votes away from President Biden while further attracting a large percentage of Democratic support for Independent and former Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema. Arizona is again expected to deliver very close statewide election results in 2024, as its electorate has done in the last two elections. There is a strong possibility that Sen. Sinema could run as the No Labels Senate candidate. Doing so would allow her to qualify for the ballot with far fewer petition signatures than required to secure an Independent ballot line. Under Arizona procedure, an Independent candidate would be required to submit 45,000 valid registered voter petition signatures. A new party’s candidate would see such a signature requirement drop to less than 1,300. AZ-1: No 2024 Re-Match: Arizona businessman Devin Hodge (D), who held veteran Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) to a scant 50.4 – 49.6% re-election victory last November, a margin of 3,195 votes that proved the 12th closest vote spread of all US House races, said Friday that he will not return to seek a re-match in 2024.
Even without Mr. Hodge as the party nominee, the Democrats are expected to make this race a key 2024 conversion target. Rep. Schweikert, still dealing with the after-effects from the penalties for eleven House ethics violations and an official reprimand in 2020, only recorded 43% in a three-way 2022 Republican primary. Therefore, it is probable the Congressman will again have strong Republican and Democratic challengers next year. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 1st District as R+7. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 50.9R – 47.5D. MI-4: Re-Match on the Horizon: After Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) was the victim of his state losing a congressional seat in 2020 national reapportionment, he found himself paired with veteran Rep. Fred Upton (R). Upon Mr. Upton then deciding to retire after serving 18 terms, Rep. Huizenga was viewed as a lock for re-election. Surprisingly, however, his victory margin was only 54-42% against Marine Corps veteran Joseph Alonso (D) who spent just $36,159 on his campaign. On Friday, Mr. Alonso announced he will return for a re-match in 2024, and we can expect the Democrats to take a more serious look at his candidacy and the new 4th District. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+9, and the newly adjusted Dave’s Redistricting App calculations casts a 51.8R – 45.1D partisan lean. Rep. Huizenga is reportedly considering a run for the state’s open Senate seat but is ultimately expected to seek re-election next year. MI-8: Rep. Kildee Announces Cancer Diagnosis: On Friday, Michigan Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township) made public his cancer diagnosis, but the prognosis for full recovery post-treatment is strong. At this point, the Congressman is expected to seek re-election next year. In 2024, he turned back a competitive challenge from former news anchorman Paul Junge (R) with a 53-43% margin. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MI-8 as R+1, but Dave’s Redistricting App, in their adjusted post 2022 election ratings, calculates the partisan lean at 51.0D – 46.2R. WI-1: Rep. Steil “Plans” to Seek Re-Election: During an interview on Friday, House Administration Committee chairman Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) says he is “planning” to seek re-election to his southern Wisconsin US House district and not challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) next year. The Senator is expected to formally announce her re-election campaign later this month. Tomorrow’s statewide odd-year election could potentially change Rep. Steil’s mind, however. Should Democrat Janet Protasiewicz win the state Supreme Court election and flip the judicial panel to a Democratic majority, it is likely that immediate lawsuits will be filed to overturn the state’s congressional map. Ms. Protasiewicz has already said that she thinks the current 6R-2D federal plan is “unfair,” so it is likely that she, and the other Democratic justices, would vote to overturn the map. If all of this happens, both Reps. Steil and freshman Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) could find their congressional districts on the partisan chopping block. At that point, talk of Rep. Steil running for the Senate could re-emerge. |
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