AZ-6: Re-Match Brewing: We are seeing several re-matches take place in 2024 US House races, and one in Arizona became official yesterday. Last November, Republican Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) defeated then-state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) by a 50.7 – 49.2% count, a margin of 5,232 votes. Now, Ms. Engel returns for a second chance.
Arizona’s 6th District sits in the southeast corner of the state and contains approximately half of the city of Tucson. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it as R+7, but Dave’s Redistricting App sees a closer 50.9R – 47.1D partisan lean. Count on another close finish in this desert congressional district. CA-47: Ex-Rep Harley Rouda Forced Out: Former Rep. Harley Rouda (D), who held the former 48th Congressional District for one term, had announced a comeback attempt for next year’s political contest in new District 47. Unfortunately, Mr. Rouda was involved in a falling accident in which he sustained head injuries. On the advice of his physicians, Mr. Rouda says that he will now not pursue his 2024 candidacy and instead concentrate on returning to full health status. This development means we will now almost assuredly see an open seat contest between state Sen. David Min (D-Irvine) and 2022 congressional nominee and ex-state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R). In the previous election, Mr. Baugh lost to incumbent Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) by a 51.7 - 48.3% split. Rep. Porter is leaving the House to run for the US Senate. NY-19: Another Re-Match Brewing: Continuing with re-matches, attorney Josh Riley (D), who lost 49.9 – 48.4% to now-freshman Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook), announced that he, too, will return for another campaign in 2024. The Upstate 19th District, anchored in Ulster and Dutchess Counties, is rated as R+1 from the FiveThirtyEight data organization, while Dave’s Redistricting App sees the partisan lean as a much different 52.0D – 44.6R. Democrats are already committed to targeting the Hudson Valley seats, so expect this race to transform into a national congressional campaign. Comments are closed.
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