Virginia: Confirming Poll

Yesterday we covered the Virginia Commonwealth University poll (7/17-25; 806 VA adults; 707 registered voters; 538 general election likely voters) that found Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) leading former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie, 42-37%.   Now, Quinnipiac University (8/3-8; 1,082 VA registered voters) released their new survey that provides an almost identical result.  According to the Q-Poll, Northam leads Gillespie, 44-38%. 
 
Interestingly, though trailing, Gillespie loses only 1% among Republicans and polls nine points better than Northam among Independents.  This suggests that there are many more Democrats than Republicans in the sample, translating into a 36:24% split.  Without party registration, it is difficult to gauge partisan accuracy, but this sample may be slightly skewed toward the Democrats. 
 
The issue breakdown is also worth noting.  The respondents believe that Mr. Gillespie would do a better job of handling taxes and the economy, while Lt. Gov. Northam is better equipped to deal with education and healthcare.  The two are tied over the question of who can best manage the immigration issue.

--Jim Ellis