Virginia: A Left Field Poll

A day after Monmouth University released their new political poll (10/12-16; 408 VA likely voters) projecting Republican Ed Gillespie to be leading Lt. Governor Ralph Northam (D) 48-47%, Quinnipiac University releases their own survey (10/12-17; 1,088 VA likely voters) that sees the race moving in the opposite direction.   According to the Q-Poll data, Northam commands the race, 53-39%. 
 
Quinnipiac reveals a significant gender gap favoring Northam with an Independent swing toward the Democrat equivalent to the overall result.  The poll appears to contain a Democratic skew because the partisan division included only 23% self-identified Republicans, far below what one normally sees in Virginia polls. 
 
Because the state does not register voters by party, it is difficult to formulate a verifiable party count, but even the recent voting history does not support a ten-point Democratic advantage, where Republican ID is below 25% of the electorate.  Though the Monmouth poll may well be too favorable for Gillespie, there is no credible evidence to suggest that Northam has anything close to a 14-point lead, particularly when late momentum appears to be moving Gillespie’s way.

--Jim Ellis