Monmouth University has been an active pollster of late and publishes results under several different turnout models. Interestingly, their most recent polls are actually showing Democrats performing better under a registered voter model than a “Democrat surge.”
The new Monmouth poll in Virginia’s 7th District is a case in point. According to the survey (9/15-24; 400 VA-7 potential voters) Rep. Dave Brat (R-Glen Allen) lies in a flat tie with former CIA agent Abigail Spanberger (D) at 47-47% when likely voters are segmented. Under a Democrat surge turnout, Ms. Spanberger takes a 48-45% lead. But, when looking at all “potential voters”, her margin increases to 47-42%.
The Rundown Blog
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