VA-10: Counter Polling

​Earlier in the week, the Washington Post released its Schnar poll of Virginia’s 10th Congressional District, which found Democratic challenger Jennifer Wexton (D), a Loudoun County state Senator, leading Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-McLean) by a major twelve-point margin, 55-43%.  But, this poll was conducted with major methodological flaws.  First, the sampling period took 16 days to complete (9/19-10/5), and the 866 respondents were sent written invitations to participate in their online survey.  Therefore, the reliability factor for this particular poll is suspect to say the very least.
 
Countering the publicity, Rep. Comstock , who clearly faces political headwinds, just released their campaign’s internal McLaughlin & Associates survey.  According to this poll (10/6-8; 400 VA-10 likely voters), the Congresswoman is clinging to a 48-47% edge with her pollster indicating that she is in better re-election position today than she was at the commensurate time in 2016.  In that election, the Ms. Comstock won a 53-47% victory despite President Trump losing the district in a ten-point spread.