Tennessee: Volatile Polling

​A series of four polls were released within the July 2-14 period, and both Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) and former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) find public data projecting them as the race leader.  As we covered last week, the Axios Media Survey Monkey poll (6/11-7/2 (for their 13 state polls); 1,010 TN registered voters) found Rep. Blackburn leading definitively at 55-41%.  This was followed by a WPA Intelligence poll (7/9-11; 551 TN likely voters) that found her ahead, but with a more pedestrian 38-35% margin. 
 
Public Policy Polling simultaneously released their data (7/10-11; 583 TN likely voters) that saw Mr. Bredesen up 44-41%.  Now, Emerson College publishes their Tennessee poll (7/11-14; 657 TN likely voters) that projects Bredesen to an even larger 43-37% advantage.  Combined, this tells us that we have no clear current leader at the present time.  Mr. Bredesen has the statewide name identification and positive image advantage, while Rep. Blackburn’s solid conservative base and Tennessee’s voting history since the former Governor left office are the key points in her favor.