Tennessee: New Polling

The Tennessee Star online publication conducted a Triton Research poll for the impending Volunteer State US Senate campaign (1/21-24; 1,003 TN likely general election voters) and found Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) jumping out to a lead beyond the margin of polling error when paired with former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D).  The results found Ms. Blackburn holding a strong 50-39% advantage, but the 46R-25D-27I partisan division skews Republican.  Additionally, African Americans look to be under-represented in the polling sample.
 
Local political analyst Steve Gill calculated the skew and projects that while Rep. Blackburn still has a strong lead, it is likely closer to seven points, rather than the posted eleven.  When former Rep. Stephen Fincher (R-Crockett County) was paired with Mr. Bredesen, it was the Democrat who led 41-38%.  Considering the polling skew, the former Governor’s edge over Mr. Fincher is likely several points greater.

--Jim Ellis