Senate – 3/14/23

New York:  Sen. Gillibrand’s Fundraising Ploy:  The Politics1 organization and other political media sites are running with a story saying that New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is telling donors that she is concerned ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo may challenge her in next year’s Democratic primary.  She sites the fact that he has $9 million remaining in his gubernatorial campaign account, which is $4 million more than she reported on her year-end Federal Election Commission financial disclosure.

Sen. Gillibrand making these statements is largely a fundraising ploy to encourage liberal donors to support her campaign. 
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Even if Mr. Cuomo, who was forced to resign the Governorship in 2021, challenged her, he would immediately begin as an underdog.  Secondly, though he still may have approximately $9 million in his state campaign account, a combination of complicated state and federal election laws may not allow a full transfer of those funds into a US Senate campaign.  Therefore, the idea of a Cuomo Senate challenge at this time should largely be discounted.

Pennsylvania:  Here They Go Again:  A new Public Policy Polling survey (3/9-10; 616 PA likely Republican primary voters) finds state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R-Chambersburg), the 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee who proved non-competitive in the general election, again leading in a statewide Republican primary. 

In a hypothetical US Senate nomination contest, PPP finds Sen. Mastriano topping 2022 candidate and former hedge fund CEO David McCormick and 2022 Senate candidate Kathy Barnette, 39-21-11%.  If the race was a two-way between Messrs. Mastriano and McCormick, the former would lead 42-28%.  Should these numbers hold, such a primary result would again nullify any realistic chance Republicans have of upsetting Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) in November.