Arizona: Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) to Announce for Senate Today: Taking quick advantage of Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix) not pursuing a US Senate run next year, fellow Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), a long-presumed 2024 Senate candidate, will reportedly officially declare his candidacy later today. At this point, he must be considered the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination and his moving so quickly after Rep. Stanton’s announcement is intended to lock down the nomination way in advance of candidate filing.
The general election will be tough in that Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is likely to be in the field and certainly whittles away some Democratic support. While her prospects of winning a Democratic primary, against Rep. Gallego or anyone else, appear poor, her victory path is more reasonable in a three-way general election. As has been the case in the last three elections, the Arizona Senate race will again become a key national campaign.
Virginia: Sen. Tim Kaine (D) Announces for Re-Election: Though some speculation was beginning to percolate that Democratic Senator and 2016 Vice Presidential nominee Tim Kaine would retire, on Friday he announced that he will seek a third term. At this point, he becomes a prohibitive favorite to win the 2024 general election in a state that is moving into the reliable Democratic category even after the Republican success in the 2021 odd-year elections.
The budding Republican candidate field is not impressive so far, but retired Navy Captain Hung Cao, who scored 47% against Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Leesburg) in a 10th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+8 and Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 55.2D-42.99R, is apparently considering a Senate challenge. Mr. Cao would provide Republicans with a credible and interesting candidate, but with the state continuing to move toward the Democrats, which is accentuated in a presidential year, means Sen. Kaine is in a strong political position as he begins his quest for a third term.
The Rundown Blog
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