Senate- 10/31/2022

New Hampshire:  Bolduc Pulls Into Tie:  The co/efficient firm tested the New Hampshire electorate (10/25-26; 1,098 NH likely general election voters; live interview & text) and sees retired Army General Don Bolduc coming all the way back to even in what was believed to be his long shot chance against Sen. Maggie Hassan (D).  With Republican leaders coming within a percentage point of denying him the party nomination, General Bolduc has successfully rebounded to competitive status in the short time since the September 13th primary.  The co/efficient ballot test finds both candidates pulling 46% preference.
 
Though the reported vote totals are customarily low in New Hampshire, only 21,089 recorded votes so far according to the Target Smart data organization representing 16.5% of the number voting early in 2020, Republicans are up 4.7% over their previous performance while Democrats are down .7 of a percent.
 
Ohio:  Conflicting Five Point Leads:  Two polling entities, surveying within the same time period, arrive at diametrically different results.  In fact, both project the Ohio Senate candidate they see as the leader to a five-point advantage.  Center Street PAC (10/24-26; 508 OH likely general election voters) posts the race in Rep. Tim Ryan’s (D-Warren/ Youngstown) favor with a 47-42% margin.  The Cygnal polling firm (10/22-26; 1,817 OH likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) comes to a wholly different conclusion: Republican J.D. Vance leading 49-44%.
 
The preponderance of October polling is more consistent with Cygnal’s findings.  In the last 16 surveys, Mr. Vance has led in 11 of the ballot tests, Rep. Ryan in three, and in two the candidates were tied.  So far, however, early voting favors the Democrats.  Based upon their 2020 performance, the Democratic participation is up 3.5 percentage points while the Republicans are down 4.4 points.
 
Pennsylvania:  Confirming Polls:  At the end of last week, Insider Advantage became the first to publish a survey after the Pennsylvania Senate debate and projected the Republican nominee, Dr. Mehmet Oz, to be holding a 48-45% edge.  Now, we see two more pollsters coming to similar conclusions.

The Wick Insights research firm tested the PA electorate (10/26-27; 1,000 PA likely general election voters; online) and sees a 48-46% Dr. Oz lead.  The co/efficient firm was also in the field (10/26-28; 1,716 PA likely general election voters; live interview & text) and likewise found a 48-45% Oz edge over Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D). 

The latter poll found both Senate candidates saddled with upside down favorability indexes.  Dr. Oz, as he has for most of the election cycle, records a higher negative than positive ratio, 37:46%.  Mr. Fetterman now joins Dr. Oz in negative territory with an index of 43:49%.