KS-2: Open Seat #50: Two-term Jayhawk State US Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) yesterday surprisingly announced that he will not seek re-election later this year, and further stated that he would not enter any of the Kansas statewide contests in 2026. Gov. Laura Kelly (D) will be ineligible to seek a third term at that time, and speculation was already surrounding Rep. LaTurner as a possible gubernatorial candidate.
The Congressman, at 36 years of age, is the youngest Republican House member. Prior to winning the congressional office in 2020, Mr. LaTurner had served as Kansas’ State Treasurer, and was twice elected to the state Senate. The LaTurner decision means there are 50 seats that will be open for the next election, 25 from the Democratic Conference, 24 from the Republicans, and one newly created district in Alabama. The GOP nominee will be the favorite to hold the seat in November. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+21. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks KS-2 as the 83rd most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. WI-1: Ex-Congressman to Challenge Rep. Steil: Former Wisconsin Congressman Peter Barca (D), who represented the 1st Congressional District for one term (1993-1995) before losing his seat to Republican Mark Neumann, announced that he will challenge House Administration Committee chairman Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) later this year. After his congressional defeat, Mr. Barca returned to the state Assembly, the body from which he first came to Congress, winning a seat in 2008. He would serve another ten years before Gov. Tony Evers (D) appointed him Secretary of the Department of Revenue. The southern Wisconsin 1st District is competitive. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+6, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate only a 49.4R – 48.3D partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks WI-1 as the 21st most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Still, Mr. Barca will have a difficult time unseating Rep. Steil. From the Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports just released for the period ending March 31st, Rep. Steil holds just over $4 million in his campaign account. Michigan: Unusual Three-Way Polling Result: It has been a consistent pattern in recent weeks that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and the minor party candidates have been routinely taking more support from President Biden than they do from Donald Trump. The latest Michigan poll reveals the opposite trend.
The Marketing Resource Group, a regular Wolverine State pollster, was in the field testing the presidential race. Their survey (4/8-11; 600 MI likely general election voters; live interview) finds Mr. Trump leading President Biden 42-36% on a head-to-head ballot test question. When Mr. Kennedy and the minor party candidates are added, the Trump margin shrinks to 37-34%, with Mr. Kennedy attracting 13%, and the remaining candidates taking an aggregate three more percentage points. When taking into account those who say they will vote for someone else, are undecided, or refused to answer the question, we see an additional 13% at this point falling away from the two major party candidates. Mr. Kennedy and the minor party candidates will be an important factor in the 2024 election. How they break come election day may well decide some, if not all, of the key swing states that will determine the ultimate final outcome. Arizona: A Flip Flop Poll: The Tyson Group conducted an April survey of the Arizona electorate (4/10-11; 600 AZ likely general election voters; online) and found a partisan flip flop result. While former President Trump captured a 39-33% lead over President Biden with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I) drawing 12% support, the US Senate result was the mirror image.
In that race, now without incumbent Kyrsten Sinema (I), US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) scored a 39-34% preference vote over Republican Kari Lake. In this race, too, the lead minor party candidate, businesswoman Sarah Williams, draws a significant vote share (10%). While the poll is good news for former President Trump in a critical swing state that both sides will exert the maximum effort to win, it is bad news for GOP chances of expanding what could be a small Republican Seante majority in the next Congress. Wisconsin: Another Close Result for Sen. Baldwin: Marquette University tested the Badger State electorate as they do every quarter (4/3-10; 814 WI registered voters). While we see former President Trump leading 48-45% within the sample’s likely voters, his edge drops to 41-40% when Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s 13% support is added to the ballot test result in addition to the five percentage points that Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Independent Cornel West cumulatively attract. Therefore, like the recently released Michigan poll, we now see the Independent and minor party candidates beginning to take more from the Trump coalition than the commensurate Biden vote base. On the bad news front for the Democrats, the voter enthusiasm question cuts decisively against them. Only 66% of Democratic respondents said they were either very (43%) or somewhat (23%) enthusiastic about voting in November. This contrasts with 82% of the Republican respondents saying they are very (60%) or somewhat (22%) enthusiastic about casting their ballots in the general election. Overall, the 52-47% break for Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) in the Senate race is good news for the GOP. After having trouble securing a candidate, businessman Eric Hovde (R) is already proving to be a close competitor. The numbers are even more encouraging for Hovde when we see that approximately 56% of the respondents express unfamiliarity with his candidacy. This compares with just under 11% who are unfamiliar with Sen. Baldwin. CA-16: Recount Ordered: The Silicon Valley anchored open 16th Congressional District is the site of an oddity in California’s top two jungle primary system. The official primary vote count produced a tie between the second and third place finishers, meaning three individuals will advance to the general election instead of just two. Fearing that again counting the votes could alter the outcome, neither tied candidate, San Mateo County Supervisor Joe Simitian (D) or Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell), called for a recount.
Early this week, however, an individual placed a $12,000 deposit to begin the machine recount. Jonathan Padilla is a 2020 Joe Biden convention delegate, according to the Daily Kos Elections site, who used to work for former San Jose Mayor Sam Riccardo (D), the man who secured the first ballot qualifying position for the 16th District general election. The entire recount will cost an estimated $84,000, so it is unclear if Padilla will continue with the payments. If the recount does progress, however, it would not be surprising to see the final count change by a handful of votes, thus one of the two tied candidates could still be eliminated. Texas: Trump Leads Among TX Hispanics: The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation conducted a recent poll of the Lone Star State electorate (4/5-10; 1,600 TX likely voters) and finds Donald Trump posting a twelve-point lead over President Joe Biden in a five-way race that includes the two major party candidates, Independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and potential Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver. The preference split was 46-34-9-2-1% in the above candidate order. Texas, the second largest state in population, has 40 electoral votes to award to its presidential winner.
The most interesting part of the poll, however, was the vote division among Hispanics. Within this segment, Mr. Trump actually leads President Biden 41-37%, which is another indication that Trump has upward mobility among Hispanics while the President exhibits clear weakness within the community. Mr. Trump also does well with Texas women, leading the President, 44-34%, a trend not seen in many other places. His spread among Lone Star men is 50-34%. Maryland: Trone Rebounds from Close Poll: Yesterday, we reported on a poll from Maryland Democratic Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks (Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group; 4/8-10; 600 MD likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) that found her trailing US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) by just three percentage points, 43-40%.
Already, we see a counter poll, this one coming from the Baltimore Sun newspaper. According to their new survey (OpinionWorks; 4/7-10; 1,292 MD likely general election voters; 600 Democratic primary voters), Rep. Trone holds a commanding advantage over Ms. Alsobrooks, topping her 48-29%. With such an obvious difference between the two professional polls conducted in the same time frame with identical sample sizes, it is clear we will need further data to better understand where this race resides. Expect heavy campaigning to occur as we move closer to the May 14th Maryland primary. AL-2: Shomari Figures Wins Dem Runoff: As expected, Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures, who placed first in the original Democratic primary back on March 5th, easily defeated state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels by a 61-39% count. Mr. Figures, the son of parents who both served in the Alabama Senate, now advances to the general election where he will be favored to win a newly created district that President Biden would have carried 56-43%.
The Republican runoff ended with a surprise, as attorney Caroleen Dobson upset former state Senator Dick Brewbaker with a 58-42% victory. In the March 5th primary, Mr. Brewbaker led a field of eight candidates. Ms. Dobson trailed Brewbaker by over twelve percentage points and only qualified for the second runoff position by 632 votes over the third place finisher. Like Mr. Figures, Ms. Dobson will now advance into the November 5th general election. Indiana: Braun Attacked for Supporting BLM: While Senator Mike Braun (R) has shown Republican primary polling strength against Lt. Governor Suzanne Crouch, former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, and venture capitalist Eric Doden in their battle for the open Governor’s position, he is now under attack for statement indicating his support for the Black Lives Matter organization.
The American Advancement organization is running ads featuring Braun saying, “I support that movement because it's addressing an inequity that has not been solved.” The ad further has him saying he would, “if asked” join a BLM protest as the narrator continually calls him a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only). It remains to be seen if the Super Pac buys enough airtime to make their negative attack on Sen. Braun stick. Arizona: Trump Leading Despite Abortion Ruling: With the Arizona state Supreme Court upholding a more than century old abortion law after the US Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade decision, Fabrizio Lee & Associates tested the Arizona electorate for ex-President Donald Trump’s campaign (4/7-11; 400 AZ likely general election voters; live interview & text).
According to the poll analysis, the heavy coverage of the abortion issue in the state has not swayed the swing voters. While Democrats largely mention abortion as the most important recent issue, independents, and a category that Fabrizio Lee terms as “Persuadables,” do not. Therefore, President Biden is not gaining new votes according to this survey sample. Thus, the ballot test, which includes Trump, Biden, Independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and probable Libertarian Party nominee Lars Mapstead, finds Mr. Trump leading the field with a 42-37-10-2-1% margin, respectively. Arizona is one of the seven critical swing states that will determine the national presidential election’s outcome Maryland: Trone Primary Lead Cut to 3 Points: Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks released an internal US Senate Democratic primary poll (Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group; 4/8-10; 600 MD likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) and found US Rep. David Trone’s (D-Potomac) lead dropping to only three points. Despite an overwhelming advantage in campaign spending – Trone had spent $24 million just through the end of 2023 – he has apparently not fully pulled away to secure the party nomination. In three independent March polls, Mr. Trone had chronological leads of 11, 12 and 7 points.
The final month of this intraparty battle will be intense. Because she knew her campaign would be badly outspent against the near-billionaire Trone, Ms. Alsobrooks saved her money until the final month. If the race has closed to within three points as this poll suggests, we can expect a major effort from both candidates down the stretch toward the May 14th Democratic primary election. The eventual party nominee will then face former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in what is becoming a competitive general election. |
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