Arizona: A Flip Flop Poll: The Tyson Group conducted an April survey of the Arizona electorate (4/10-11; 600 AZ likely general election voters; online) and found a partisan flip flop result. While former President Trump captured a 39-33% lead over President Biden with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I) drawing 12% support, the US Senate result was the mirror image.
In that race, now without incumbent Kyrsten Sinema (I), US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) scored a 39-34% preference vote over Republican Kari Lake. In this race, too, the lead minor party candidate, businesswoman Sarah Williams, draws a significant vote share (10%). While the poll is good news for former President Trump in a critical swing state that both sides will exert the maximum effort to win, it is bad news for GOP chances of expanding what could be a small Republican Seante majority in the next Congress. Wisconsin: Another Close Result for Sen. Baldwin: Marquette University tested the Badger State electorate as they do every quarter (4/3-10; 814 WI registered voters). While we see former President Trump leading 48-45% within the sample’s likely voters, his edge drops to 41-40% when Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s 13% support is added to the ballot test result in addition to the five percentage points that Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Independent Cornel West cumulatively attract. Therefore, like the recently released Michigan poll, we now see the Independent and minor party candidates beginning to take more from the Trump coalition than the commensurate Biden vote base. On the bad news front for the Democrats, the voter enthusiasm question cuts decisively against them. Only 66% of Democratic respondents said they were either very (43%) or somewhat (23%) enthusiastic about voting in November. This contrasts with 82% of the Republican respondents saying they are very (60%) or somewhat (22%) enthusiastic about casting their ballots in the general election. Overall, the 52-47% break for Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) in the Senate race is good news for the GOP. After having trouble securing a candidate, businessman Eric Hovde (R) is already proving to be a close competitor. The numbers are even more encouraging for Hovde when we see that approximately 56% of the respondents express unfamiliarity with his candidacy. This compares with just under 11% who are unfamiliar with Sen. Baldwin. Comments are closed.
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