Quinnipiac Poll: Trump Draws Into a National Tie: Quinnipiac University conducts monthly national political polls, and their April survey reports a much different conclusion than the four previous studies had produced. The most recent poll (4/18-22; 1,429 US registered voters; live interview) finds President Biden and former President Trump tied at 46% in the head-to-head delineation, and 37-37% when Independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (16%) is added along with Green Party nominee Jill Stein (3%), and Independent Cornel West (3%).
This poll reveals a significant movement in Mr. Trump’s favor when compared with the four previous polls beginning in December that yielded President Biden leads of one, six, four, and three percentage points. CO-8: Rep. Caraveo (D) Drops Behind in New GE Poll: Despite having a better than 5:1 lead in fundraising, an early April OnMessage survey in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District (4/1-4; 400 CO-8 likely voters; live interview) projects state Representative Gabe Evans (R-Westminster) to have secured a 43-38% ballot test advantage over freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton). This, in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+3. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, however, calculate a different 48.3D – 47.0R partisan lean. In 2020, President Biden carried the district 50.8 – 46.3%.
The 8th CD was created through 2020 national reapportionment since Colorado gained a seat and was drawn as a suburban/outer-suburban district to the north and northeast of Denver. This race will be rated as a toss-up campaign all the way through the November election. NJ-10: Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. Passes Away: New Jersey US Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark), who suffered a heart attack on April 9th and unfortunately did not recover, passed away yesterday. His death means there are now six vacant congressional seats thus reducing the total membership number to 429. Since candidate filing is closed for the regular cycle and Rep. Payne is the only candidate on the ballot for the 10th District Democratic primary, he will posthumously win the nomination contest. According to a story in the New Jersey Globe newspaper, once all candidates are certified for the general election by the June 17th deadline after the June 4th primary election, the Secretary of State will declare the seat vacant. The various Democratic county party committee members would then meet in convention to choose a replacement nominee. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has leeway regarding calling a special election for purposes of filling the remainder of the current term. He can schedule a special primary and general within the time limits proscribed by New Jersey election law, or he can make the special general concurrent with the regular election. The 10th District is heavily Democratic, so the party’s new nomination process will decide who succeeds the late Congressman Payne. NY-1: Ex-Rep. Santos Drops New Bid: Earlier this week, expelled US Rep. George Santos (R) announced that he is dropping his Independent bid in the state’s 1st District, attempting to deny Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) re-election. In his statement, Mr. Santos said, “I don't want to split the ticket and be responsible for handing the House to the Dems. Staying in this race all but guarantees a victory for the Dems." Mr. Santos may be overestimating his ability to draw votes as an Independent or minor party candidate. Rep. LaLota, in a post on X, said he believes Santos ending his candidacy means he is negotiating a plea bargain to the 23 federal charges he soon faces in trial. In closing, Mr. Santos indicated that, "it's only goodbye for now, I'll be back." Rep. LaLota, in a district that the new redistricting plan made slightly more Republican, is favored for re-election. Pennsylvania: Presidential Primary Results: Recently, there has been an uptick in President Biden’s polling numbers, particularly in the critical Great Lakes states, and the turnout pattern in last night’s Pennsylvania primary looks to verify those figures.
While we had consistently seen higher Republican turnout opposite the Democrats in the earlier primary states around the country, yesterday in the Keystone State, approximately 100,000 more Democrats look to have voted than Republicans once all of the cast ballots are recorded. President Biden recorded 88.8% in the Democratic primary, while former President Trump took 82.8% on the Republican side. MI-4: Rep. Huizenga Draws Primary Challenger: On the last day of candidate filing in Michigan, Ottawa County Republican Party chairman Brendan Muir announced that he will challenge seven-term US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) in the 2024 Republican primary. This is Rep. Huizenga’s first term representing the post-redistricting 4th CD. Prior to the 2022 election, he was the 2nd District incumbent, but that seat was eliminated in reapportionment and redistricting.
Ottawa County, which houses Mr. Huizenga’s home city of Holland, is an entity housing just over 300,000 residents. The 4th District portion of Ottawa County – the municipality is split between the 3rd and 4th Districts – is the second largest voting block in the CD behind Kalamazoo County. Rep. Huizenga will be a heavy favorite both for renomination and re-election. Pennsylvania: House Primary Results: In the congressional races, the most competitive incumbent challenge occurred in the Pittsburgh anchored 12th District. While challenger Bhavini Patel ran a strong grassroots effort against freshman Rep. Summer Lee (D-Swissvale), the race ended in a projected 60.2 – 39.4% split in the Congresswoman’s favor. A combination of a major Lee resource advantage and staying away from any emphasis on her being part of the Socialist Democratic caucus’ “Squad,” allowed her to capture a definitive renomination victory. In terms of challenger races, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Emmaus) defeated technology business owner and 2022 congressional candidate Kevin Dellicker and attorney Maria Montero to win the GOP nomination in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton anchored 7th District. Mr. Mackenzie will now advance to the general election to face three-term Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) in what figures to be another competitive campaign. Rep. Wild has averaged only 51.5% of the vote in her last two elections. Yesterday’s turnout in this seat proved to be about even between the two parties. In the 10th District that featured a competitive Democratic primary for the right to challenge veteran Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg), former local news anchor Janelle Stelson outpaced businessman Mike O’Brien and four others to claim the party nomination. Turnout favored the Republicans in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+9. Still, this is another campaign to watch in the coming general election. Virginia: Spanberger Opponent Drops Bid: Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney (D) announced yesterday that he is ending his 2025 bid for Governor and instead will enter what is expected to be an open contest for Lt. Governor. The move, at least for the short term, leaves Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Cove) as unopposed for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.
Mr. Stoney, however, is entering a contested primary for the secondary position. St. Sen. Aaron Rouse (D-Virginia Beach), a former NFL and UFL football player, also announced his bid for Lt. Governor yesterday. Sen. Rouse, also a former Virginia Beach City Councilman, was elected to the Senate in a special election in early 2023. AL-1: First Announcement for 2026: It appears we have our first announcement of candidacy for the 2026 election cycle. Alabama US Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile), who was defeated for renomination in March when he and Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) were paired in a new 1st District in response to a court-ordered redistricting directive to draw another majority minority congressional seat, has filed a campaign committee for the 2026 election cycle.
Therefore, it appears we will see a rematch of the contest where Rep. Moore, who saw only 41% of his previous territory be included in the new 1st District, defeated Rep. Carl by a 51.7 – 48.3% result even though the latter man outspent the winner by a 2:1 margin. Should this rematch actually transpire in two years, it will again be competitive. CA-16: Early Recount Produces Leader: The recount of the CA-16 primary that resulted in a tied result between San Mateo County Supervisor Joe Simitian (D) and Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) for the second general election qualifying position is underway. In Santa Clara County, the larger of the two municipalities that comprise the Silicon Valley 16th Congressional District, a reported 77 of the district’s 199 precincts have been machine recounted, and Mr. Simitian has so far captured a three-vote lead. A political action committee with ties to first place finisher Sam Liccardo (D), the former San Jose Mayor, is reportedly financing the recount, which is likely to cost approximately $300,000. In almost every situation, a recount changes the election result at least by a few votes. This means we will likely see either Mr. Simitian or Mr. Low likely be declared the official second-place finisher once this process concludes. The votes were originally cast on March 5th. If the two remain tied, both will advance to the general election to create a three-way race with Mr. Liccardo. If the latter man is behind the financing of the recount that neither Simitian nor Low requested, then it is clear that Liccardo believes a two-way race is to his benefit. MI-13: Rep. Thanedar (D) Draws Another Primary Challenger: Another budding primary challenge faces Michigan freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit). In 2022, he won an open Democratic primary with just 28% of the vote, and the second place finisher, then-state Sen. Adam Hollier, who secured 21% in a field of nine Democratic candidates long ago announced his return for a rematch. Now, former Southfield City Clerk Shakira Hawkins (D), who resigned from office before felony charges were levied against her, has announced her own congressional candidacy. Also in the Democratic primary race is Detroit City Councilwoman and former state Representative Mary Waters. This will again be a competitive contest, but the more crowded the field, the better for Rep. Thanedar who has the financial wherewithal to outspend his opponents. Candidate filing ends today for the August 6th primary election, so we will soon see the official field form. The 13th District, one of two anchored in Detroit, is heavily Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it as D+46, so Rep. Thanedar’s race for re-election lies in the Democratic primary. North Carolina: Stein Posts Definitive Lead: A new North Carolina statewide poll that pits Donald Trump to a two point lead in the presidential contest also sees Attorney General Josh Stein pulling away from Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) in the open Governor’s contest.
Meredith College (4/11-17; 801 NC registered voters; 711 NC likely voters; online) went into the field to test the NC electorate, known for returning close statewide general election results, and found AG Stein leading the Lt. Governor by a 45-36% count. Though Mr. Stein has been leading in five of the seven polls released since the beginning of March, this result depicts his strongest lead. The end result is expected to be close. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. KS-2: More Individuals in the Candidate Mix: Potential Kansas congressional candidates continue to contemplate their political moves in response to last week’s surprise retirement announcement from two-term Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka).
Republicans already expressing interest in announcing their candidacies are state House Majority Leader Chris Croft, Leavenworth County Attorney Todd Thompson, and state Senator Caryn Tyson (R-Parker). Former state Attorney General and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Derek Schmidt acknowledges that his name is in the mix for the 2nd District but has not yet made a statement regarding intent. State Insurance Commissioner Vicky Schmidt is a possible candidate. Topeka Mayor Michelle de la Isla is mentioned as a potential Democratic contender. The Kansas candidate filing deadline is June 1st. The real action is in the Republican primary as the seat will almost assuredly remain in the GOP column. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+21, and Donald Trump carried the district 57-41% in the 2020 presidential campaign. WI-8: Rep. Gallagher (R) Resigns: After staying to vote on the foreign aid bills, Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) officially resigned his seat. His action reduces the total House count to 430, and the Republican majority to 217-213. Mr. Gallagher joins former Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), Brian Higgins (D-NY), Bill Johnson (R-OH), and Ken Buck (R-CO) who also left the House prior to finishing the current term. Special elections to fill the balance of the terms will be held in all but Wisconsin. The New York district will be filled April 30th, CA-20 on May 21st, the OH-6 seat on June 11th, and Rep. Buck’s Colorado CD on June 25th. Each party is expected to hold the seats of their departing members. If so, when the special election cycles conclude, the Republicans will have 220 seats and the Democrats’ 214. Pennsylvania: Primary Tomorrow: The nation’s only April primary is scheduled for tomorrow, and electorates in several key House races will choose nominees. Presidential turnout, as a gauge for voting enthusiasm, will be monitored, while both major party US Senate candidates, Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) and businessman David McCormick (R), are unopposed in their respective nomination campaigns.
We have several major primaries occurring, one that will seal a seat for the Democratic nominee in the Pittsburgh anchored 12th District, and two more in swing districts that will lead to highly competitive general election races. Freshman Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pittsburgh) defends against local official Bhavini Patel in District 12. Republicans feature a competitive primary to challenge vulnerable Reps. Susan Wild (D-Allentown), as do Democrats opposite six-term Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/ Harrisburg). Republicans also look to mount strong challenges against Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) and Chris Deluzio (D-Aspinwall). Tomorrow, however, their candidates, businessman Rob Bresnahan and state Rep. Rob Mercuri (R-Pine Richland), face no intraparty opposition. |
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