President – 9/13/23

President Biden:  Maintains Standing Against Kennedy:  The newly released Issues & Insights TIPP poll (8/30-9/1; 606 US likely Democratic primary voters; online) again finds President Biden holding an overwhelming lead over Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. in a Democratic primary trial heat.  The margin, though still on the weak side for an incumbent President considering 32% of the Democratic respondents would choose a candidate other than Mr. Biden, continues to stake the President to a 68-10% margin. 

More importantly than the Biden number that fluctuates to a degree, the Kennedy support figure has remained consistent in the low double-digit range.  The fact that we have seen little movement in the nomination campaign despite months of campaigning from Mr. Kennedy, suggests that the final result will not differ greatly from what we’re seeing in the multitude of similar polling totals.

Iowa:  Trump Grows Stronger:  The newly released Emerson College Hawkeye State survey (9/7-9; 839 IA respondents; 357 IA likely Republican caucus attenders; multiple sampling techniques) stakes former President Trump to a 50-39% advantage over President Biden in a head-to-head ballot test.  If Green Party candidate Dr. Cornel West is added to the questionnaire, Mr. Trump would lead Biden and he, 48-35-5%. 
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Comparing Mr. Trump’s current polling numbers to those found during the 2016 and 2020 election cycle suggests that the former President’s lead over Mr. Biden could be even greater.  In the two previous elections, Mr. Trump clearly under-polled in Iowa surveys when compared with the ultimate final result.