Pennsylvania: Poll Posts Casey to Double-Digit Lead

Monmouth University released their latest Pennsylvania statewide poll (4/4-12; 414 PA registered and likely voters) and finds Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) holding a substantial 48-32% lead over Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Hazelton).  The margin is such that there is no doubting that Sen. Casey enjoys a sizable advantage in this fledgling campaign, but this poll has serious flaws.  First, the sample size of 414 voters for a state the size of Pennsylvania is small, and the eight-day sampling period is long.  Keeping in mind that Monmouth missed the Pennsylvania presidential campaign result about a week before the election because President Trump’s vote was understated by a minimum of four percentage points, it would be fair to speculate that the current margin is likely a bit tighter than Monmouth projects. 
 
--Jim Ellis