Monmouth University released their latest Pennsylvania statewide poll (4/4-12; 414 PA registered and likely voters) and finds Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) holding a substantial 48-32% lead over Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Hazelton). The margin is such that there is no doubting that Sen. Casey enjoys a sizable advantage in this fledgling campaign, but this poll has serious flaws. First, the sample size of 414 voters for a state the size of Pennsylvania is small, and the eight-day sampling period is long. Keeping in mind that Monmouth missed the Pennsylvania presidential campaign result about a week before the election because President Trump’s vote was understated by a minimum of four percentage points, it would be fair to speculate that the current margin is likely a bit tighter than Monmouth projects.
The Rundown Blog
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