Pennsylvania: Money Matters

​As we have seen in recent elections, campaign funding is not always a determinative predictor of election outcomes but it is often a good predictor of future political activity.  The second quarter fundraising reports are coming into the public domain, and the Pennsylvania disclosures tell us a great deal about who may be challenging Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D), and who may not.  Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Hazelton), who was talking about making a US Senate decision in July, now says he will do so before Labor Day.  He had an active second quarter but only shows a little over $513,000 cash-on-hand.  This is well below where a strong challenger must be opposite a two-term statewide incumbent. 
 
On the other hand, Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Butler/Erie) has more than $1 million in the bank, as does businessman Jeff Bartos.  Businessman Paul Addis has just over $100,000, while state Reps. Rick Saccone and Jim Christiana are lagging way behind with only $31,000 and $22,000, respectively.  Though half of Mr. Bartos’ money is self-contributed, it still appears he may be the potential candidate with the most momentum and commitment to the race.  Rep. Kelly is viewed as being only a long shot to actually enter the Senate race.
 
All of the Republican numbers pale in comparison to Sen. Casey, however.  The incumbent reports raising $9.3 million for the year to-date, with $5.6 million cash-on-hand.