A new DFM Research Democratic poll conducted for the Sheet Metal, Air, Rail, and Transportation union (1/18-19; 384 PA-18 registered voters) finds Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone (R-Canonsburg) leading Democratic attorney Conor Lamb by only a three-point margin, 41-38%. The poll appears correctly geographically dispersed within the four-county congressional district, but the partisan ratio is unreported.
The close margin is inconsistent with other recent internal Republican polls, which show Mr. Saccone holding leads of nine and ten points. The poll’s purpose was to survey the public about freight train crew size, so the political questions were not the focal point. How that may factor into the accuracy of the congressional ballot test is unclear. The special election to replace resigned Rep. Tim Murphy (R-Pittsburgh) is March 13th.
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