A new Emerson College poll (3/1-3; 474 PA-18 likely special election voters) finds Democrat Conor Lamb leading Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone (R-Canonsburg) by a 48-45% margin in a district that President Trump carried 58-39%, and for which resigned Rep. Tim Murphy (R-Pittsburgh) ran unopposed in the last two elections.
Regardless of who wins this election, a much different district will present itself if the new Pennsylvania district lines survive a Republican stay motion to the US Supreme Court. Less than 60% of the current territory will transfer to new district 14, with the remainder going to different southwestern Pennsylvania districts. A Democratic victory here would give the party a major boost in its bid to re-claim the House majority, while a loss in what normally performs as a safe seat would be devastating to the GOP.
The Rundown Blog
Learn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States.