PA 16: A Re-Match

Non-profit executive Christina Hartman (D) attracted significant national attention from Democratic activists, $1.1 million in campaign funds, and a great deal of media hype in 2016, but at the end of the day didn’t fare particularly well.  Running in a traditionally Republican open seat anchored in Lancaster, state Senator Lloyd Smucker (R-Lancaster) secured a comfortable 54-43% win last November, a typical open seat victory margin in a district that is normally considered lightly competitive. 
 
Yesterday, Ms. Hartman announced that she will return for a re-match in what should be a more difficult campaign.  First, she faces at least three other announced Democratic candidates in a primary.  Second, the mid-term turnout model should be more favorable to Rep. Smucker, and third, the Congressman has two years of incumbency that he didn’t have previously.  On the other hand, if the Pennsylvania congressional lines are re-drawn as a result of the redistricting lawsuit that will likely make it to the state Supreme Court before the 2018 election, then the political situation could drastically change.
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