PA-10 & 16: Pair of Polls Show Budding Competition

​Two new polls find Keystone State Reps. Mike Kelly (R-Butler) and Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/York) with only single-digit leads in their newly configured congressional districts.  Public Policy Polling (6/8-10; 654 PA-10 likely voters) projects Rep. Perry to be leading Lutheran minister and retired Army officer George Scott (D), 45-41%.  The large respondent sample suggests this is an automated survey and not a live interview poll.  But, the new 10th District is considerably more competitive than Mr. Perry’s previous 4th CD, so forecasting a closer 2018 congressional race within these new boundaries is certainly reasonable.  In 2016, President Trump comfortably carried the new 10th District with a 52-43% margin. 
 
In Rep. Kelly’s new western Pennsylvania’s 16th CD, stretching from Erie to the outer northern Pittsburgh suburbs, the Normingtion Petts survey research firm conducted a poll for Democratic nominee Ron DiNicola (6/5-7; 400 PA-16 likely voters), and also finds a forming competitive challenge.  According to their data, Rep. Kelly’s advantage is only 50-44%, and is the second such poll to suggest that this campaign has the potential to develop.  In May, Public Policy Polling found Mr. Kelly to be holding a similar 48-43% edge.  The new 16th District is 81% of Rep. Kelly’s former territory and comprised entirely of areas that Republican members previously represented.  President Trump carried the new PA-16 by a full 20 points, 58-38%, so this seat is more likely to normalize as Election Day approaches. 
 
Both Republican incumbents Kelly and Perry are favored for re-election, but the latter district should perform as the more legitimately competitive domain.