Ohio: Dems Counter

As we predicted, it wouldn’t be long before we saw polling data that counters the new Fallon Group survey (1/16-19; 801 OH likely general election voters) that gave Attorney General and former US Sen. Mike DeWine (R) a commanding 48-29% lead over ex-Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director and former Attorney General Richard Cordray (D).   We only had to wait a day.  Yesterday, Public Policy Polling (1/22-23; 585 OH registered voters), conducting a survey for the Ohio Democratic Party, finds DeWine’s lead not 19, but a scant one-percentage point, 45-44%.   DeWine’s lead expands to 48-37% if his general election opponent were former US Representative and Cleveland Mayor Dennis Kucinich (D). 
 
The PPP data also looks to be relatively sound, showing both Democrats and Republicans claiming 38% party membership and the presidential vote margin just one point low (for President Trump).  Obviously, we will have to see more data from this campaign in order to make a more consistent race projection.

--Jim Ellis