An early 2020 political survey finds 2018 GOP congressional nominee Yvette Herrell (R) jumping out to a large 51-38% lead over freshman Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D-Las Cruces). The Strategy Group Company conducted the poll (1/23-27; 1,070 NM-2 likely voters; 537 likely Republican primary voters), but the general election result appears unrealistic. Having access only to the ballot test and not the underlying numbers, it is difficult to believe a freshman House member who had just defeated Ms. Herrell 51-49% in November would already be falling 13 percentage points behind.
In the Republican primary, Ms. Herrell, an ex-state Representative, leads former Secretary of State candidate Gavin Clarkson, energy company executive Claire Chase, and former Fresno, CA City Councilman Chris Mathys, 50-7-4-2%. Since Ms. Herrell is the most recent former Republican nominee in this district, her being this far ahead in the GOP primary is believable. New Mexico’s 2nd District will again be a battleground race in 2020.
The Rundown Blog
Learn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States.