NJ-3: Rep. MacArthur Falls into a Tie

The Global Strategy Group surveyed a series of polls for the League of Conservation Voters and the Environmental Defense Fund in which 20 swing districts were tested from a pool of 2,000 respondents.  GSG then added over-samples of 300 voters in each of the districts.  The questionnaires concentrated heavily on environmental regulation/public lands queries and included several push questions to create a negative image of the Republican candidate in each district.  The polls were conducted between the June 11-21 period.  

The GSG (6/11-21; 400 NJ-3 likely general election voters) results in Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-Toms River) and former National Security Council official Andy Kim (D) recording the same general election voter support, with the two tied at 42%, apiece.  The pollsters asked several negative push questions that describe Rep. MacArthur as a Congressman who “won’t hold polluters accountable.”  They also added the questions outlined in the CA-25 snippet.  Post-push questions, Democrat Kim leads 50-34%. 
 
The Congressman won a twenty point, 59-39% victory in 2016, however, and the 3rd District historically provides polling results that haven’t necessarily reflected the race’s eventual outcome.