On Friday, Granite State Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-Rochester), who had already been defeated twice as an incumbent, announced that she will not run again next year. The announcement was shocking in the fact that she has twice returned from defeat after originally winning in 2006, her latest resurgence occurring last November. New Hampshire’s 1st District, covering the eastern part of the state including the largest city of Manchester, has defeated more incumbents than the electorate has re-elected since 2006, inclusive.
Ms. Shea-Porter first won by defeating two-term Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley eleven years ago. She was re-elected in 2008, before losing to then-Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R) in 2010. She returned to defeat Guinta in 2012, lost to him in 2014, and then unseated him yet again last November. It is clear that Guinta will not return for another campaign, but the Congresswoman’s decision to retire is one of the biggest surprises of this election cycle. Needless to say, this race will be rated as a toss-up for 2018.
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