New Jersey & Virginia: Election Day!

The final poll was released for today’s open Garden State gubernatorial election that former US Ambassador to Germany and Wall Street executive Phil Murphy (D) appears poised to win.  Quinnipiac University released what will prove to be the cycle’s last poll (10/30-11/5; 662 NJ likely voters) that gives Mr. Murphy a 53-41% advantage over Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno (R).  Though the survey detects slight movement in Guadagno’s direction, Mr. Murphy’s strong double-digit across the board polling margins will hold up tonight.  We can expect an early evening in New Jersey.
 
Also on the ballot is the considerably tighter open Virginia Governor’s race between Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie.  A large number of polls show a tight contest heading into the election, meaning the side that does the better job of delivering its voters will be the winner.  Mr. Northam needs a strong northern Virginia turnout, where Mr. Gillespie requires a high rural turnout.  The Republican also needs to come close to breaking even in the Tidewater region, the Lt. Governor’s home base.  Northam also needs a strong Richmond turnout, while Gillespie must do well in the city’s suburbs and surrounding counties.

--Jim Ellis