The University of Montana conducted their Big Sky Poll, and Democrats are faring well in the tabulations. The survey was conducted from 10/10-18 and interviewed 607 Montana registered voters of which 533 were determined to be likely voters. According to the ballot test, Sen. Tester maintains a 49-39% advantage over state Auditor Matt Rosendale (R).
But, the survey sample appears to skew Democratic. The crosstabs literally show 0% of Democrats supporting Rosendale. The female sector favors Sen. Tester by 21 percentage points, 54-33%, which appears too strong of a swing. Conversely, males are breaking 45-45% between the two candidates. The Independents are dividing 49-33% for Tester, which again seems a stretch too far within this mostly conservative voting state. While it is reasonable to see Sen. Tester leading in a ballot test, this survey is not consistent with other recent data that shows the race getting a bit closer, instead of widening in in the incumbent’s favor.
The Rundown Blog
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