KS-2: Open Congressional Poll

​The crowded August 7th Republican primary is approaching in the district from which five-term Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R-Topeka) is retiring.  The Mellman Group chose one of the seven GOP contenders, state Sen. Steve Fitzgerald (R-Leavenworth), as a proposed general election opponent for former state House Minority Leader and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Paul Davis (D) in their latest poll (6/13-18; 600 KS-2 likely voters).  In addition to Sen. Fitzgerald, a former state House Speaker, four sitting state legislators, a local official, and a defense contractor comprise the primary field.
 
According to the Mellman Group, a ballot test featuring Messrs. Davis and Fitzgerald would break 39-34% in Mr. Davis’ favor, but this is well before the general election campaign has developed.  Democrats view this as a top open seat conversion opportunity because Mr. Davis topped Gov. Sam Brownback (R) here by seven points in the last gubernatorial campaign.  The fact that Mr. Davis doesn’t even reach 40% from a district he carried against the then-incumbent Republican Governor suggests, however, that the partisan trend could change quickly once the GOP nominates a candidate.