House – 9/18/23

CA-16, 18:  Ex-Mayor Won’t Run:  Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) who said earlier in the year he was deciding whether to challenge Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) or Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose) in California’s March Democratic primary will not run against anybody.  Instead, he has accepted a position with a legislative advocacy firm.  Both Reps. Eshoo and Lofgren appear as prohibitive favorites to win another term in the House irrespective of who might be their Democratic primary and general election opponents.

MI-13:  Two Will Return to Challenge Rep. Thanedar:  Freshman Michigan Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit), who won a crowded open Democratic primary in 2022 with just 28% of the vote, will face at least two of the same opponents in his renomination fight next year.  Former state Sen. Adam Hollier and John Conyers III, whose father held this same seat for 52 years, appear to be sure bets to return for another electoral battle.  Once again, however, a crowded field will help Mr. Thanedar because his opposition vote will be split.  The Democratic primary will determine who represents the district.  The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MI-13 as D+46.

PA-10:  Anchorwoman May Soon Declare:  Veteran news anchorwoman Janelle Stelson (D) has resigned her position with WGAL-TV in Lancaster, PA, ostensibly to soon declare her candidacy opposite US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg).  While Ms. Stelson is well known in the Lancaster area, which media market touches York County, the bulk of the 10th District population lies in the Harrisburg/Dauphin County region.  Therefore, she does not command districtwide name identification. 
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The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 10th District as R+9, which suggests a competitive race but one that a Republican should typically win.  Rep. Perry was originally elected in 2012.  He begins this race as a clear favorite for re-election.