CA-45: Tulchin Research See One Point Race: The Republican House majority will be greatly affected by the outcome of seven Democratic seats that the GOP holds in California and New York. One of those is Rep. Michelle Steel’s (R-Orange County) plurality Asian 45th CD that is fully contained within Orange County.
After she easily placed first in the jungle primary with 55% of the vote, a new Tulchin Research survey (5/23-6/2; 600 CA-45 likely general election voters; live interview) sees the Congresswoman holding only a 42-41% edge over attorney Derek Tran (D). This, despite former President Trump leading President Biden, 47-41%, and the generic Republican figure touching 44% as compared to the Democrats’ 40%. The long 11-day sampling period suggests a high error factor, but it is still surprising to see Rep. Steel, commonly believed to be in the strongest shape of the seven politically marginal Republican incumbents, to be weaker than Trump and the generic GOP figure. PA-10: Three Close Polls: A third survey within the past month of central Pennsylvania’s 10th CD, suggests the major party nominees are headed for a close finish in November. The latest released survey, from Pennsylvania based Franklin & Marshall College (5/28-6/2; 397 PA-10 registered voters; live interview) and sees six-term incumbent Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg) holding only a one-point, 45-44%, edge over former television news anchor Janelle Stelson (D). A late May Normington Petts survey projected a similar 51-48% ballot test, while a late April Public Policy Polling study saw a 45-43% division. While the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-10 as R+9, Mr. Perry’s Freedom Caucus membership is likely well to the right of the average district voter particularly in the Harrisburg area. Therefore, this is another of the tight congressional races that will decide the House majority in November. VA-5: Conflicting Polls: We are fast approaching the June 18th Republican primary that will decide whether Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg), the House Freedom Caucus chairman, can win renomination to a third term despite opposition from former President Donald Trump and ex-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Rep. Good was one of the leaders in ousting the former Speaker. A pair of June polls find seriously conflicting results. The most recent, from WPA Intelligence (6/2-4; 300 VA-5 likely Republican primary voters; live interview), sees Rep. Good’s challenger, state Sen. John McGuire, leading the race with a 41-31% advantage. But a Neighborhood Research and Media survey (conducted for Media Champions of Freedom PAC; released 6/4; 301 VA-5 likely Republican primary voters) finds Rep. Good holding a similar 39-30% advantage. Therefore, the conflicting data suggests the race is undecided as we enter the final week of campaigning. Comments are closed.
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